‘THE OLD year’s gone away”, wrote John Clare, “To nothingness and night.” Whatever the personal joys and sorrows of 2011, we would all, collectively, like to assign this year to such oblivion. We don’t have that option: the difficulties of the old year cannot be wished away with the opening of a new calendar.
Ireland and the world face warily into 2012, wondering whether many of the institutions and assumptions that have been taken for granted since the end of the second World War will be intact at the end of it. It would be unforgivably glib to simply dismiss those anxieties and wave a banner of blithe optimism.
Yet, there are grounds for sober hope, for the belief that we could be living through a time, not of collapse, but of painful renewal. The western world is certainly struggling to come to terms with large changes. But those changes are not all bad ones. Indeed, there are sound reasons for believing that, if we can start to deal with the underlying problems, our societies will be healthier, more humane and more sustainable than they were before the crisis.
The strange thing about the current crisis is that not much of it is really surprising. The forces that conspired to create such political and economic turmoil were hardly mysterious. It was obvious enough that the financial system had become too large and voracious; that inequalities had become socially and economically excessive; that the environmental cost of endless consumption was unbearable; that the United States cannot function as a sole invincible superpower; and that the member states of the European Union are utterly interdependent without being truly unified.
All of these realities have been plain for at least the last decade but most western governments chose to carry on regardless. We in Ireland understand this perhaps better than anyone else: we managed to live in a bubble of self-delusion and we have paid a dreadful price for our folly. The rest of the western world is now catching up with us, grappling with the consequences of the same forces that have brought us to grief.
Facing up to any one of these underlying problems is difficult; facing up to all of them at the same time is confusing and harrowing. The experience has been made much worse by the general weakness of the political response, the struggle of global leaders to imagine clear solutions, let alone implement them in a coherent manner. But none of the problems is insoluble and the very depth of the crisis is forcing the West finally to face them. What it will find as it does so is that there are no patch-up, short-term solutions. It has to engage with deep-seated conflicts and contradictions that have festered too long.
This is why 2012 could be a year of positive change rather than of bleak chaos. We know from experience that people – and societies – change, not because they want to, but because they have to. That necessity is now unavoidable.
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It will become clear, soon enough, that the crisis in the euro zone demands a reaction more decisive and far-reaching than the fiscal compact currently envisaged. That agreement may provide part of the framework, but at best it can function only as a confidence-building measure. The solution lies in a mobilisation of Europe’s collective resources to deal with the interlocking emergencies of excessive debt, weak banks and inadequate investment. That, in turn, will demand a rediscovery of the scale of vision which led to the creation of the EU in the first place – the boldness to imagine a union whose democratic governance adequately reflects the interdependence of its member states.
No one believes that this will be a simple process, but the underlying choice really is quite simple: renewal or collapse. It is not naive to believe that a union which has successfully faced two enormous challenges – the copper-fastening of peace in western Europe and the stabilisation of central and eastern Europe after the end of the cold war – is incapable of meeting this one.
That process gives Ireland an opportunity to find some light at the end of its tunnel of debt and austerity. It will demand skilled leadership by the Government, but a significant part of the burden of debt can (and must) be lifted. It is unrealistic to expect that Ireland will be able to meet stringent criteria for fiscal control if the repayment of debt is draining resources from a depleted economy. Conversely, a resolution to the debt crisis in 2012 would transform Irish attitudes, creating a sense of possibility that would do wonders for the economy and society.
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It may seem far-fetched to hope that the United States will prove capable of a similar effort of fundamental renewal. The tone of the Republican Party’s debates scarcely portends a presidential election year in which rationality and realism prevail. The fact remains, however, that the US has the opportunity to break its political gridlock and begin to deal with the social and economic weaknesses that are holding back its still immense promise.
There is nothing in the current crisis that cannot be resolved by coherent, courageous and determined political action. The challenge is to take that action on a global scale. That demands a renewed understanding of something we already know: that there is no solution for one that is not a solution for all. If there’s a willingness to build anew on that basic principle, 2012 can be a turning point towards a better and more sustainable future.