A Time For Reflection

The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are wise to take some time before deciding on the nature of the review to be conducted…

The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister are wise to take some time before deciding on the nature of the review to be conducted into the Belfast Agreement following the cathartic events of the last two days. The high drama played out at yesterday's meeting of the Northern Ireland Assembly - culminating in the abstention of the Ulster Unionist Party, the appointment, and suspension, of the first all-nationalist Executive, and the resignation of the deputy First Minister-designate, Mr Seamus Mallon - has plunged the political process into its deepest crisis since the historic agreement was signed fifteen months ago.

There will be many recriminations in coming days about how this sorry state came to pass. Was Mr Tony Blair right to set the "absolute deadline" of July 15th, in the week of the traditional Orange celebrations, as the time for Mr David Trimble to lead his party into a government with Sinn Fein members? Could Mr Mr Trimble reasonably have been expected to persuade his party in two weeks that Sinn Fein could convince the IRA to voluntarily decommission its arms by May 2000 without hearing it from the IRA? Will Mr Trimble's authority as leader be sufficiently restored at any stage to allow him to accept what Mr Blair has described as the "seismic shift" in Sinn Fein's position? Could not the IRA have responded to Mr Ahern's very specific plea for a statement of intent?

These, and other questions, will be analysed by the political establishment on the island of Ireland, in Britain and the United States, which has made such a huge investment in the peace process in recent years. Mr Blair cautioned wisely yesterday that "recriminations and criticisms will pass". Mr Ahern urged people not to allow themselves to be "deflected or disheartened". Both leaders promised to renew their efforts to address the differences between unionists and republicans on how the vital principles of guns and government are to be resolved.

Despite the farcical turn of events in the Assembly, it is worth remembering that the Belfast Agreement, overwhelmingly endorsed in the referendums North and South last year, is still in place. All of the pro-agreement parties - including the UUP and Sinn Fein - have again pledged their commitment to work it. Not one signatory to the agreement has adopted a position which is irreversible.

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Mr Blair's "absolute deadline" failed to resolve the relationship between the establishment of the Executive and the decommissioning of paramilitary arms. It did produce a commitment from Sinn Fein for the first time, however, that the IRA was obliged to decommission its arsenal and that it could be convinced to conclude that process within eight months. The two Governments failed to have a cross-community Executive formed but they forced the pace by triggering the D'Hondt system. Mr Trimble absented his party from yesterday's proceedings but, in so doing, managed to stave off a potentially damaging debate about Sinn Fein's exclusion from the Assembly. Mr Mallon resigned dramatically as the nationalist leader in the Assembly, thereby serving notice that there are two communities to be accommodated in this process.

The antagonism displayed by members towards each other at the Assembly meeting visibly highlights, once again, the level of distrust to be bridged in the politics of Northern Ireland. A period of reflection is needed now before attempting a further step forward.