A great deal hangs on the outcome of last Sunday's closely fought elections in the Turkish-controlled enclave of northern Cyprus. Parties in favour of reopening negotiations on a United Nations plan to reunite with the Republic of Cyprus won a narrow majority of the votes; but the complex electoral system dictates that they and parties opposed to the plan have 25 seats each.
President Rauf Denktash is to have talks with each of them to see if a coalition government can be formed, and says new elections will be held if these are unsuccessful.
Many have concluded this is the worst possible outcome, since it will give Mr Denktash a perfect excuse to delay a decision on whether to reactivate the UN plan. He relies for support on the Turkish military establishment, which values its presence in Cyprus for strategic reasons and has tended to resist political and democratic reforms in Turkey necessary to qualify for opening talks with Brussels on EU membership.
If a settlement is not reached soon, a divided Cyprus will enter the EU next May. The European Commission is to prepare a report on Turkey's own application over the same period, on which EU leaders must make a final decision next December.
These interlocking timetables could create a dynamic leading to a settlement of the Cyprus question created by the Turkish invasion in 1974, on the basis of which Turkey's prospects of opening EU accession talks would immensely improve.
A great deal will now depend on how the Turkish government responds. Mr Denktash has considerable leeway and autonomy as the long-standing Turkish Cypriot leader; but he relies on Turkey for support and orchestrated the votes of recent immigrants from there in the elections. He is determined to hold on to his role as chief negotiator, which has given him effective veto power on the UN plan; but he has seen his authority eroded by a widespread shift in attitudes among Turkish Cypriots, who are afraid they would lose out if a divided country enters the EU next May.
In Turkey the reformist Islamic government led by Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan regards opening EU accession talks as its major priority. It has introduced a broad range of legal and democratic reforms to prepare for it, including ones that restrict the powers of the secular military establishment, which remains suspicious of Mr Erdogan's party. It in turn sees EU accession as a means of extending rights from which its supporters benefit. It would be fully in keeping with this approach for Mr Erdogan to take a radical initiative in pursuit of a Cyprus settlement, going over Mr Denktash's head if necessary.