ANALYSIS:France and Germany are singing from the same hymn sheet, writes JAMIE SMYTHin Brussels
AFTER ALMOST a decade of debate, referendums and re-negotiation EU leaders are finally beginning to believe the Lisbon treaty will enter into force.
“We have removed the last political hurdle,” said European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso a few minutes after EU leaders signed off on a deal to provide an opt-out from a key part of the treaty to the Czech Republic.
The opt-out relates to the charter of fundamental rights, a bill of rights that is made legally binding by the Lisbon Treaty. Prague will at some point in the future be offered the same protocol that Britain and Poland negotiated on the charter when the Lisbon treaty was first drafted more than two years ago.
This concession follows a last-minute request by eurosceptic Czech president Vaclav Klaus, who raised concerns the charter could be invoked by ethnic Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia after the war.
Czech prime minister Jan Fischer insisted yesterday that Mr Klaus was “content with the text” on the opt out.
This was confirmed later when Mr Klaus said he did not “intend to submit any further conditions regarding ratification” of the treaty.
This leaves only the Czech constitutional court standing in the way of the final ratification of the treaty.
It is expected to rule on Tuesday on whether the treaty is compatible with the Czech constitution.
Most legal experts believe it will rule in favour, as it did in a similar challenge earlier this year.
With the endgame for the treaty now in sight EU leaders are already preparing to appoint the new jobs of European Council president and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security.
If the court backs the treaty next week and Mr Klaus signs it, the current EU presidency Sweden is expected to hold a summit on November 12th to decide the names.
President of the European Council is appointed by EU leaders on the basis of qualified majority voting, although in practice big states can probably wield a veto over a candidate.
Former British prime minister Tony Blair’s prospects of being appointed suffered a major blow when he failed to find support among his own Socialist colleagues at the summit.
German chancellor Angela Merkel, who will prove pivotal to the appointments, kept her silence on the issue.
But French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who had been a proponent of Mr Blair for president, was more forthcoming.
“The names that first come out of the hat are not necessarily those that are finally chosen. With Chancellor Merkel, we completely agree that we are going to have the same approach, the same vision and support the same candidate when the time comes,” he said indicating that France and Germany would try to agree on the names for both important EU jobs.
A consensus seems to be emerging for the president to come from a small member state and be a member of the European People’s Party (EPP).
This leaves Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende, former Austrian chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and perhaps even the new Belgian prime minister, Herman van Rompuy, as favourites.
Former taoiseach John Bruton looks unlikely to secure the post with one French diplomat joking about his chances.
“It’s funny how from the long distance of Washington, he somehow sent through his application,” said the diplomat, who noted that the Celtic Tiger economy had “somewhat faded” since he was taoiseach.
There is an emerging consensus that the new high representative, which is probably a more substantial post than council president, should be filled by a Socialist.
A possible candidate is British foreign secretary David Miliband, although this would require him to leave British politics for five years.
The imminent ratification of the Lisbon treaty has also prompted a lot of EU states to inform Mr Barroso about their nomination of commissioner. More than 20 member states have informally provided names and are lobbying behind the scenes to win important jobs in the new 27 member commission.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen is expected to nominate an Irish commissioner to replace Charlie McCreevy next week with a lot speculation focusing on former minister and member of the European Court of Auditors Maire Geohegan-Quinn and former President of the European parliament Pat Cox.
All 27 new commissioners will face hearings in the European Parliament in either November or December, depending on when Mr Klaus signs the treaty.
Most diplomats believe the treaty will enter into force on January 1st.