The Government has not convinced a sceptical public that it is right to allow Shannon Airport to be used in the US military build-up in the Gulf, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
If anyone was tempted to say the tens of thousands of anti-war protesters taking to the streets today are unrepresentative, the results of the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll today on the use of Shannon Airport show that they are not.
The only practical step Ireland is likely to be asked to play in any war is to allow the US military to continue to land its planes for refuelling on their way to and from the Gulf region.
On this point the result is clear: voters clearly oppose this use of Shannon now, and would oppose it by a margin of more than three to one if the US decided to take military action against Iraq without the backing of a new UN resolution.
However, the margin against the use of Shannon as a transit point for US troops is narrowest if this is to be done after a new UN resolution backing war.
Currently 49 per cent would still oppose this use of Shannon, but 42 per cent would support it, while 9 per cent have no opinion.
Should the Security Council agree such a motion, the Government has some hope of being able to facilitate the US military while keeping the majority of voters on board.
In a rapidly-changing situation, the narrow margin of opposition could be reversed if the UN weapons inspectors suggested such a motion was justified, if the UN Security Council approved it and if the Government gave a convincing explanation of the rationale for offering such support.
If it did reverse that narrow margin of opposition, it would be because it had persuaded men.
Judging by this poll, the women of Ireland will not be convinced that the landing of military planes in Ireland en route for the Gulf is a good thing, no matter what the UN decides.
If there is another UN resolution the poll shows the use of Shannon by US troops will still be opposed by 54 per cent of women, with 33 per cent in favour and 13 per cent having no opinion.
In the event of a US-led war without UN backing, the use of Shannon is opposed among women by a margin of almost six to one.
The apparent anti-war sentiment mirrors the results of the last Irish Times/MRBI poll in October.
Then, Ireland was a member of the UN Security Council and voters were asked whether Ireland should support or oppose military action against Iraq if that country failed to comply with UN resolutions on arms inspection.
Some 59 per cent said Ireland should vote against authorising military action if Iraq failed to comply with UN resolutions, 29 per cent were in favour and 12 per cent had no opinion.
There was a more than three to one margin of opposition to military action if carried out by the United States without UN approval.
Just 22 per cent said Ireland should support such US action, 68 per cent said Ireland should oppose it, and 10 per cent had no opinion. This latest poll showing the strength of opposition to the use of Shannon in the event of a unilateral US decision to attack Iraq indicates that Irish voters are no different from their counterparts throughout Europe, who have shown their opposition to a war in opinion polls, and will do so on the streets of European capitals today.
The answers to questions on the Convention on the Future of Europe display a lack of knowledge and understanding rather than any strong public view.
The message is that while Europe's political elites may be locked in debate over the EU's institutional structure and legal basis, the Irish public is not.
Two out of five voters have no opinion on two of the issues currently the subject of contention at the convention - the proposals to have an EU constitution and to establish a President of the Council of Ministers in addition to the current President of the European Commission.
Of those who have a view, they are three to one in favour of a constitution setting out the Union's fundamental values and procedures, and support the plan for a President of the Council of Ministers by 34 per cent to 26 per cent.
The convention will be followed by an Inter-Governmental Conference which it is hoped will agree a new EU treaty some time next year.
The Irish people will be asked to vote on it in yet another referendum.
When that comes, issues such as proposals to abolish the national veto in certain areas, to end the automatic right of member-states to have a representative on the Commission, and the ever-present issues of foreign policy and defence co-operation are likely to be more contentious.