United Kingdom Independence Party on the march, say pollsters

Country profile/United Kingdom: Europe finally made it as an issue in Britain's European election campaign this week - courtesy…

Country profile/United Kingdom: Europe finally made it as an issue in Britain's European election campaign this week - courtesy of a poll predicting that the United Kingdom Independence Party is on the march.

According to pollsters YouGov the "British withdrawal" party is set to emulate the Green Party sensation of 15 years ago by pushing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place and claiming between eight and 12 seats in the new European Parliament.

That should be good news for Robert Kilroy-Silk, the former BBC chat show host sacked earlier this year after making comments in a newspaper article describing Arabs as "limb amputators".

The one-time Labour MP now carrying the UKIP standard in the East Midlands is one of the few characters lending colour to a peculiar election in which people vote for regional party lists rather than candidates, and where in four of the nine English regions the polling booth and ballot box have been abolished.

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That experiment in all-postal voting - in the North West, North East, Yorkshire and Humberside and the East Midlands - is part of a determined effort to raise the UK above the lowest anywhere in Europe turnout of just 24 per cent in 1999. Five years on, however, there is no sign of a reconnection between this electorate and the European Parliament. The question of an ever deepening and widening EU may exercise the politicians at Westminster but the majority of Britons know little, and appear to care less, about Europe - save to say that they have no current desire to see the Great Project carried any further. And while this will be the second time the British European elections have been fought under the PR closed list system, less than a third of voters realise they will be voting for a party rather than their local MEP.

That figure rises among those most likely to vote and there are polling suggestions of a considerable improvement in the overall turnout on June 10th, possibly even in the high 30s.

The reason for that, of course, is that "Super Thursday" will combine the European elections in all 12 UK regions, with local elections in England and Wales and the mayoral contest in London. And while rising council tax bills and the quality of local services will doubtless inform some voters, the big issue over-arching all these contests is Iraq.

The Scottish National Party leader, Mr John Swinney, is urging Scots voters to deliver "a devastating rebuke for Mr Tony Blair's illegal war." Plaid Cymru will be hoping to benefit from a similar protest vote in Wales, while former Labour MP Mr George Galloway estimates around 86,700 votes should be enough to give his anti-war coalition "Respect" a London seat.

Liberal Democrat leader Mr Charles Kennedy dismisses "Respect" as "decided also-rans and rather irrelevant." However, he insists the European poll provides a "most appropriate forum" for electors who found their views on the war ignored to send a message to Mr Blair.