Analysis: David Trimble could still hold his own tomorrow, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Assembly elections are rather like the dreaded Eurovision Song Contest. Eurovision songs tend to be unspeakably awful but counting the votes always provides amusement.
Equally, this election campaign was generally dull but the counts promise high drama and edge-of-the-seat excitement and tension. Voting in the 18 six-seater constituencies is tomorrow, and the counts run through Thursday and Friday. It's a proportional representation election and the overall result is unpredictable.
Still, as a martyr to ritual humiliation, I'll make a stab at the outcome, but more of that later.
Huge battles will be decided when the counts cease sometime on Friday, barring re-counts and legal challenges. We will learn whether the Rev Ian Paisley, 32 years after the DUP was founded, has finally emerged as the main force of unionism.
We will know, too, whether Mr Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin are to be the chief voice of nationalism. We will also be able to make an informed guess on whether devolved government must remain stalled for a year or two or whether there is potential at least for the resurrection of the Assembly and Executive.
A lot is at stake in the struggles between the SDLP and Sinn Féin and between the Ulster Unionists and the DUP, but in terms of safeguarding the Belfast Agreement, the main contest is between the unionist parties. Mr Adams and Mr Mark Durkan offer different brands of politics but whether the SDLP or Sinn Féin is the largest nationalist party is irrelevant as regards the agreement because they both unreservedly support the accord.
Dr Paisley would not darken the door of a bookmakers but he will welcome the odds Eastwoods in Belfast are offering for which party will have most seats: DUP 4/7; Ulster Unionists 8/5; Sinn Féin 7/1 and the SDLP 66/1.
It's worth noting that the Sinn Féin odds were yesterday slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 after a lot of money was placed on the party emerging as the biggest.
There are numerous potential permutations. Let's examine a couple on the SDLP versus Sinn Féin contest. Sinn Féin conceivably could increase its seats from 18 to 29 by taking a first seat in South Belfast, South Antrim, North Antrim, Lagan Valley and East Derry; second seats in North Belfast and South Down; third seats in Foyle, West Tyrone and Newry and Armagh; and a fifth seat in Mr Adams's West Belfast constituency.
For that outcome everything would have to go right for Sinn Féin: it would have to manage its vote perfectly, get lucky in how transfers and surpluses were distributed, win transfers where none were before, and continue its upward take of first-preference votes. This crucially would require nationalism almost turning its back on the SDLP because it would see the SDLP losing seats in the former bailiwicks of John Hume, Séamus Mallon and Eddie McGrady.
It's a tall order, but not impossible. Certainly Sinn Féin will win some of these additional seats. But another permutation could see the party taking maybe half of these seats and ultimately the SDLP matching them or remaining close enough to continue as a major player.
Accordingly, the SDLP must hold its position in constituencies such as Foyle, South Down, Newry and Armagh, West Tyrone, South Belfast and Lagan Valley, and perhaps achieve another miracle in unionist East Antrim where gallant Mr Danny O'Connor is struggling to hold his seat. That's why all those transfers to which Mr Durkan repeatedly refers are so important to the SDLP's future.
The most likely scenario is that everything won't go right for either Sinn Féin or the SDLP.
Alliance had six seats and will do well to hold five. It's difficult to see how another plucky fighter, Mr David Ford, can survive in South Antrim.
Prof Monica McWilliams and Ms Jane Morrice scraped in in South Belfast and North Down in 1998, and are likely to be again battling in the final counts. It's a similar story for Mr David Ervine and Mr Billy Hutchinson of the Progressive Unionist Party, with Mr Hutchinson the most vulnerable. Mr Robert McCartney of the UKUP should come home comfortably in North Down.
The DUP started the Assembly with 20 seats and, what with UUP and independent unionist defections and other independent seats that it will hoover up, seems certain to increase its total by at least six seats. After that it is relying on Peter and Iris Robinson respectively in East Belfast and Strangford and Sammy Wilson in East Antrim to ensure three seats in each of these constituencies. Such a result would give the party 29 seats, but it would require perfect vote management, an art in which it is not always adept.
The bookies may favour the Dr Paisley over Mr Trimble scenario but the UUP leader could still hold his own. The UUP came into the Assembly with 28 seats and, with luck and transfers, could face the next Assembly with the same number.
This is how I see it: Ulster Unionists 28; DUP 28; PUP 1; UKUP 1; Sinn Féin 24; SDLP 20; Alliance 5; Women's Coalition 1.