TWO of three Northern Ireland voters believe a political settlement will not be reached at the multi party talks which resume at Stormont today.
his deep pessimism, broadly shared by unionists and nationalists, has prompted support by 57 per cent of the electorate for a bore active involvement by the Irish and British governments in attempting to devise an agreement, according to an Irish Times opinion poll.
The poll was conducted last week by Coopers and Lybrand, in association with MRBI, and involved a sample of 1,100 voters at 56 locations across Northern Ireland.
The difficulties facing the talks, the political parties and the governments are starkly revealed by the conflicting aspirations of the two communities in the aftermath - an over heated marching season and the ending of the IRA's ceasefire.
A power sharing arrangement at Stormont, without North/South links, is the most favoured option on a cross community basis, but it secures only 22 per cent support overall. The greater integration of Northern Ireland within the UK gets 20 per cent approval; a united Ireland is favoured by 17 per cent of respondents; 14 per cent support a power sharing arrangement involving North/South links; 12 per cent desire a return to majority rule; 9 per cent favour a system of joint authority and 4 per cent dish for an independent Northern Ireland.
In spite of the sharp polarisation of opinion within the two communities on all of these settlement options, there are signs of some political movement. Three years ago, a similar survey found 26 per cent support for a power sharing arrangement at Stormont within the UK (North/South links were not specified). Support for a bower sharing arrangement, with or without North/South links, has now risen to 36 per cent.
The most popular political option among Protestants, at 33 per cent, involves greater integration within the United Kingdom, but only 3 per cent of Catholics agree with such an approach. And while a united Ireland is favoured by 39 per cent of Catholics, it receives less than 1 per cent support from Protestants. Even where respondents were allowed a second choice, none of the political options available secured 50 per cent support across the communities.
The claim to jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, contained in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution, continues to prompt a complete divergence of views. Sixty three per cent of Protestants want the claim to be dropped now; 14 per cent feel it should be dropped when political agreement is reached and 15 per cent favour a modification of the claim. In contrast, 48 per cent of Catholics believe it should never be dropped; 20 per cent favour modification and 17 per cent would drop it when a political settlement was reached.
The boycott of Protestant businesses in the aftermath of Drumcree is regarded as damaging to community relations by a majority of both Catholics and Protestants. But while 24 per cent of Catholics, compared to 17 per cent of Protestants, believe it is an acceptable way of making a political point, some 26 per cent of Protestants, as against 20 per cent of Catholics, accept the tactic as an alternative to more militant action by republicans.
Speculation over the continued involvement of Senator George Mitchell as chairman of the talks process will probably intensify as a result of these negative poll findings. Protestant resistance to US involvement in the talks process has accelerated since President Clinton's visit last year and it now amounts to 64 per cent. In contrast, 75 per cent of Catholics believe US involvement will help. Across both communities, 47 per cent believe US involvement is constructive, while 43 per cent feel it will hinder the process.