Turkey's economic rescue plan depends on political will to meet IMF loan terms

The glass, said Turkey's Finansal Forum newspaper, is half full

The glass, said Turkey's Finansal Forum newspaper, is half full. Economy Minister Kemal Dervis's weekend announcement of a long-awaited economic rescue plan leaves markets to ride out several days more of uncertainty before foreign lenders top up that glass with the multi-billion dollar loans it takes for granted.

Mr Dervis appeared to have little doubt that money would come this week and to the tune of $10-12 billion. "I am very hopeful. I do not see any major difficulties," he said.

A weary caution, however, suffused early commentaries. Mr Osman Ulagay, economic columnist in Milliyet daily, lamented Mr Dervis's failure to set any target rate for a currency that has fallen by almost half. That slump has raised import prices, spread uncertainty and "frozen" transactions throughout the economy.

"The announcement that we will likely secure $12 billion in foreign support will calm the markets," economist and former senior central banker Ercan Kumcu wrote in Hurriyet newspaper. "But fixing the problems in the manufacturing sector which turns the wheels of the financial markets will take time."

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Mr Dervis, a senior Turkish World Banker enlisted by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit after the crisis engulfed Turkish markets in February, announced his plan on Saturday. His reasoning was illustrated throughout a news conference with a rich array of projected graphs and charts.

Mr Dervis's plan rested on two basic planks. Turkey would take measures long demanded by lenders such as the International Monetary Fund to rein in state spending. This would be accompanied by foreign loans, agreed with an IMF team now in Ankara, to help reform banking and cover debt repayments approaching this year.

The IMF has hinted it could bring forward the release of up to $6.25 billion foreseen by a fund-backed anti-inflation plan scuppered by the crisis. The World Bank could also release $5 billion agreed on last year. Mr Dervis is seeking new loans from Group of Seven industrial countries.

Any loans, however, will be conditional on legal reforms politicians have been markedly slow in delivering. Parliament is now under pressure as it has never been before.

It has passed three of 15 draft laws Mr Dervis demanded, including budgetary approval to handle state bank losses, electricity sector reform and a sugar pricing bill.

Mr Dervis eschewed any major steps in increasing government revenues through taxes that could further hamper commerce and worsen public hardship already raising protests. He reasons he must sway the general public.

Tens of thousands protested at the weekend against rising prices in goods from food to petrol, unemployment and hardship that have beset Turkey since Mr Ecevit unleashed the crisis with a bitter public row with his president two months ago. But there was none of the violence that marked one protest last week.

"Any serious new tax is out of question," Mr Dervis said. "There might only be some minor adjustments."

In the absence of fresh tax earnings, he would tighten spending to reach a key fiscal target - a rise in the public sector's primary surplus to 5.5 per cent of gross national product this year from 2.8 percent in 2000.

Only half of a percentage point of the 2.7 per cent improvement would come from central government budget savings. The rest would come mainly through belt-tightening in unproductive state economic enterprises.

Enterprises would freeze employment and cut fringe benefits and investments. Wage rises would be limited to year-end target inflation which is 52.5 per cent in consumer prices and 57.6 per cent in wholesale prices.

Privately, some senior bankers were initially sceptical.

"The government will have to think of more concrete revenue sources," said one. "It is not easy to overcome the bottleneck only with spending cuts and foreign support."

Turkey's three-party coalition government is seen by many as hamstrung in any efforts to force reform by a system of political and economic patronage.

Mr Dervis signalled he would grasp the nettle and give high priority to reform in both the public and private sector, where an abundance of small, weak banks has undermined operations.

The new programme expects the economy to shrink 3 per cent this year after a 6.1 per cent growth in 2000. Mr Dervis said he expected the economy to grow again from July or August although the overall 2001 annual growth would remain negative.

His plan may be what Hurriyet dubbed it in its headline - "A First Step for a New Turkey". But the second step must come, the glass must be topped up, quickly and surely this week.