Will the huge changes in Fine Gael hasten an election? Yes, say some; no say a greater number of others. The Government can name the day and Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney say it will be 2002, after another budget, a date that provides its best chance of being returned to power. Barring an accident, such as a tribunal bombshell or major banana skin, such as the O'Flaherty affair, most commentators now tend to believe them, but still debate the pros and cons. The next general election is vital for everyone and everything and the outcome, as always with elections, is greatly determined by the date and manner of its calling. Hence the fevered speculation.
Those favouring an early election argue that the longer Michael Noonan has to revitalise his troops, organise his candidates, lovebomb the marginals, enthuse the organisation and promote himself as the next Taoiseach, the better chance he has of succeeding. So go to the country now, say some in the coalition, and catch Fine Gael on the hop.
Those in Government who argue for 2002 point out that FG is set for a huge boost in popularity - from the buzz of a new leader, who always gets a honeymoon, and new front bench, the ardfheis in two weeks' time, the Tipp South by-election - likely around the end of March and where FG are expected to hold its seat - and an anticipated rise in the opinion polls. Wait, say coalition strategists, till this gloss wears off. While great and highly paid politicos debate the conundrum, sharp minds on the Government side are watching closely the dynamics between FG and Labour.
FG says it is moving left towards an alliance with Labour, but this week was the most acrimonious between the two parties for some time, as rows broke out over the approach to Dail procedures and party funding.
Noonan, of course, was trying to position himself as the leader of the opposition. Ruairi Quinn is keeping all options open.
As Quidnunc always says, it comes down to numbers in the end, and anyone will do a deal with anyone else once they add up.