He may be the bookies' favourite, but Tom Hayes knows it's the voters who will decide the outcome of the Tipperary South by-election.
"I'm only the front-runner in the media. It's the constituents who count and they have the say on the final day," says the Fine Gael candidate when asked if it was difficult to stay in pole position for a month-long campaign. "That's why I intend to meet as many of the people as I can between now and polling day."
The 49-year-old senator from Golden knows better than most how the pundits can get it wrong. A year ago, he was the outsider of the four main candidates in the by-election in the same constituency.
Far from being the also-ran, however, he was the only contender to give Mr Seamus Healy a serious run for the seat. In finishing a strong second, he helped to secure Mr John Bruton's continued leadership of the party and boost his own reputation as a vote-getter.
A year on, following the untimely death of his party colleague Theresa Ahearn, the political landscape has changed dramatically. A new leader, Mr Michael Noonan, is knocking on doors with Mr Hayes and this time the candidate is under pressure to deliver the seat.
"There is a huge responsibility on me, being the favourite, there's no doubt about that," he says. "It's a huge challenge. A lot rests on my shoulders. A by-election is always hard to win and I'll probably be the only man ever to fight two by-elections. I don't think there's anyone else living who has done that."
Does he regard this as his big chance and, if he fails to grasp it, perhaps his last?
"I didn't even think about it that way. I'm going out to win it. I'm selling my message and I'm determined to do what I can to win the seat. I think we owe it to Theresa Ahearn who stood with me throughout the last by-election."
Mr Hayes says a range of is sues features in the campaign, including decentralisation, hospital waiting lists, the health service in general, unemployment in Tipperary town, sports facilities and, even in this largely rural constituency, crime.
"Crime is an issue particularly in the bigger towns, but also in the small rural stations." He has seen no sign to date of the voter apathy which might be expected given the series of polls held in Tipperary South in recent years - a general election in 1997, local elections in 1999, a by-election in 2000, a referendum in 2001 and now another by-election.
"As somebody wrote about the people here: `they love their politics, they love their hurling and they love their racehorses.' Everywhere I go there's a bit of banter, they're not fed up with it at all."
As the only candidate in last year's election in the field again, he believes the profile gained on that occasion is an advantage. "Having canvassed the last time I'm known across the constituency."
His CV also includes experience in the Oireachtas which his competitors lack. "I know where I'm going, I have the experience and I know what it's about. I think that's a plus."
But is there any advantage in constituents sending to the Dail a man who is already in Leinster House? Wouldn't it make more sense to let him carry on his work and elect someone else to add to the ranks? "The reality is the Dail is where politics is at, it's where financial decisions are made and to have a real input you have to be in the Dail. You have way more clout as a public representative."
He is making no forecasts, however. "I'm not in the predicting game. The last time they predicted it they had it totally wrong and had me last at all times until the very last few days. I think we'll do well but it is my ambition to meet everyone I can to put my case to them."
The by-election to fill the vacancy caused by the death last year of Fine Gael deputy Theresa Ahearn takes place on Saturday, June 30th. The candidates are Mr Tom Hayes (FG), Mr Denis Landy (Lab), Mr Michael Maguire (FF) and Ms Phil Prendergast (Ind).