MIDDLE EAST: Syrian president Bashar al-Assad is expected to announce a large withdrawal of troops from Lebanon in a parliamentary speech today.
He is under intense international pressure to do so. This week in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Abdullah is reported to have told Mr Assad, on a visit to the country, that Syria must comply with UN demands immediately if it wants to avoid serious trouble.
A former Lebanese cabinet minister with close ties to Syrian and other Arab governments told Associated Press yesterday that Mr Assad would outline "a mechanism for the practical implementation of the Taif accord".
The 1989 agreement, which ended Lebanon's 15 years of civil war, requires Syria to pull back to the border and eventually leave the country.
"It will be a Syrian withdrawal according to the Taif agreement - a redeployment to the Beka'a region [ of eastern Lebanon]," the former minister said. Lebanese sources say Syria, which has about 14,000 soldiers in Lebanon, will keep 3,000 and will say this is in compliance with the accord.
Witnesses said Syrian forces around the villages of Falougha, Hammana and Dahr al-Baydar in the mountains west of the Beka'a valley were digging in and strengthening their defences.
Syria is looking for a face-saving exit from a confrontation with the UN, but it is doubtful whether Lebanese public opinion, which blames Syria for the assassination of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri last month, will settle for less than a total withdrawal.
There is also concern in Lebanon about the continuing presence of the Syrian mukhabarat, the intelligence service, whose influence is pervasive.
As the crisis develops, most of Syria's larger, unofficial army of poor labourers, who used to do work that was too low-paid or demeaning for the Lebanese, have already left.
Building sites in Beirut lie abandoned and the platoon of shoe-shiners, who formerly patrolled Hamra Street waving their brushes at Starbucks customers, have gone.
Nobody is sure how many ordinary Syrians there were - possibly several hundred thousand - but fear has driven them out. Since Hariri's assassination, Syrian workers have been beaten up and three have had their throats slit, according to diplomats.
Syrian students at the Lebanese American University have been asking staff if it is safe for them to continue their studies; the answer, so far, has been yes.
Lebanese opposition leaders have been insisting their quarrel with the Syrian regime must not turn racist. It was Syrian sweat that rebuilt much of Lebanon after the civil war, but the Lebanese are not particularly grateful. They complain that instead of spending money in Lebanon, Syrian workers sent most of their wages home.
Nor are the Lebanese much troubled at losing the people who did the dirty jobs.
"We'll get Indians and Sri Lankans instead," a hotel manager said.
Initial jubilation at the downfall of Omar Karami's Syrian-backed government on Monday has calmed as the opposition debates its next moves.
Discussions about a new government are being held, and a name often mentioned as a possible prime minister is Salim al-Hoss, a veteran Sunni politician who has spent the last few years on the sidelines. He is said to be reluctant, though.
The main, and perhaps only, task of any new government will be to organise the elections due in May, which will also provide a deadline of sorts for a Syrian withdrawal.
