Hopes of opposing nationalist influence on the ruling party appear to depend on a challenge from independents, writes Nick Birch from Ankara
The struggle for Turkish politics: hardliners v. pro-Europeans. Since Sunday, Turkish politics has been in turmoil. With the government paralysed since May by the continuing illness of the Prime Minister, Mr Bulent Ecevit, his ultra-nationalist coalition partner, Mr Devlet Bahceli, finally broke ranks to call for early elections in November.
On Monday Mr Ecevit's former right-hand man, Mr Husamettin Ozkan, resigned from the government, taking 32 deputies with him. With power now falling into the hands of Mr Bahceli's nationalists - known for their hardline stance on Cyprus and the EU's accession requirements - the first reaction of Turkish pro-Westerners was one of despair. "It's back to square one on Europe," ran Tuesday's headline in the liberal daily, Radikal.
Today, with the sudden resignation yesterday of the popular foreign minister, Mr Ismail Cem, things are beginning to look up for Turkey's Europhiles.
"Turkey is at a crossroads," says CNN-Turk commentator Mehmet Ali Birand. "We could entrust our future to rising political stars capable of opening up to the EU and solving the Cyprus problem, or we could stick with the old system and the old people." The latter, he thinks, would put paid to Turkey's hopes of joining Europe, at least for the foreseeable future.
If the choice of destinations seems clear, the path to be taken is murky. Commentators are near-unanimous in agreeing that Mr Ecevit is unlikely to step down.
"He is determined to fight," says one source in Ankara, adding that there is evidence Mr Ecevit is right in seeing Mr Ozkan's resignation as part of a "palace coup" mounted in collaboration with government liberals and the pro-European Dogan Media Group, Turkey's most powerful media empire.
The first step Mr Ecevit has taken to reassert his supremacy is to replace Mr Ozkan with Mr Sukru Sina Gurel, described by Radikal columnist Murat Yetkin as "by far the most hardline member of Ecevit's party".
"Gurel is No on Cyprus, No on the EU," says Ali Bayramoglu, who writes for a conservative daily, Yeni Safak. "His promotion is evidence that Ecevit is willing to adopt the hardline stance of his ultra-nationalist coalition partners."
There is also agreement that, whatever happens over the next few months, elections are almost certain to be held this autumn. Mr Birand interprets Mr Bahceli's call for elections in November as a skilful piece of political manoeuvring, aimed at neutralising the risk of Turkey's popular Islamic leader, Mr Tayyip Erdogan.
"Any earlier, and Erdogan would be sure to win," he explains. "But the Constitutional Court's decision banning him from leading a party will come into force at the end of October, and he'll be out of the game."
His removal is in the interests of all political parties. Recent polls suggested his party was the only one to have more than the 10 per cent support necessary for parliamentary representation. Hypothetically, all seats in parliament could be his.
Turkey's hopes of countering the growing nationalist influence over the government appear to depend on Mr Ozkan building up a party strong enough to challenge Mr Ecevit. Until yesterday evening his dissenters lacked the kudos of a big name.
His success in persuading Mr Cem to step down is a major boost. All that now remains for him to do, commentators say, is to convince the economy supremo, Mr Kemal Dervis, to join them. Many in Turkey are sure he can.
Mr Ozkan's diplomatic skills are famous in Turkey. And he would have needed them all to convince Mr Cem, thinks Murat Yetkin.
"Cem is a cautious character, the sort who wants guarantees," he says, and attributes Mr Cem's resignation to Mr Gurel's rise to the top of Mr Ecevit's Democratic Left Party (DSP).
The two men have major policy differences over Cyprus and Europe, but there is also personal rivalry.
Cem's presence in Ozkan's group will increase its prestige immensely, encouraging other deputies to join the 33 who have already resigned. Reports last night suggested that up to 40 could follow him, pushing the number of independents in parliament up to 86.
Mr Metin Heper, head of the politics department at Bilkent University in Ankara, says: "With the arrival of Cem and Dervis on the political scene, we will be in a totally different ball game. And that, in my opinion, would be an excellent thing for this country."