Small parties suffer in cautious campaign

IT started with tax and ended with tax

IT started with tax and ended with tax. In between there was no issue to ignite a lack lustre campaign: nobody did enough to inspire the electorate to produce a decisive result.

Fianna Fail sent its leader on a high profile tour of the State, ensuring that he featured nightly on the news, shaking hands. Fine Gael brought the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, on regular forays around the constituencies as well, but this had less impact.

In the latter half of the campaign, however, in the face of poor opinion poll results, Mr Bruton adopted a more robust style, attacking Mr Ahern for being allegedly indecisive and winning the head to head television debate.

The campaign cent red on Mr Ahern and Mr Bruton, and the smaller parties suffered. The PD leader Mary Harney ran a high profile campaign, but the Government had some success in portraying her and her party as harsh and uncaring. Labour ran a low key campaign, with Dick Spring once their most valued asset taking a low profile.

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Both major parties gained during the campaign, Fianna Fail in seats, Fine Gael in seats and percentage vote. But the concentration on the leaders of alternative government blocs damaged the profile and the electoral performance of the smaller parties.

The initial debate on tax proposals proved the most substantial of the campaign. While there were clear differences the Rainbow proposals would benefit the lower income groups more than would the Fianna Fail/PD plans the argument ended in a draw, according to most commentators.

Last Wednesday Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats made a last attempt to win the issue, producing an outline of a November budget.

At more than £400 million it would cost more than the £300 million offered per year by the main parties. It promised a new lower rate of 20 per cent, chargeable on the first £2,000 of income; the extension of the standard rate tax band; a reduction in the top tax rate; PRSI cuts; and a £2,000 tax allowance for spouses at home or child care costs.

But what was intended as a surprise final package only served to remind us that there were no radically different visions on offer of the direction Irish society should take in the next millennium.

The Rainbow's tax package did offer to benefit lower income earners more than the Fianna Fail and PD proposals. The Rainbow placed more emphasis on the provision of health and education services, while the alternative put more emphasis on controlling public spending.

On May 14th, the day before the Dail was dissolved, it was revealed in this newspaper that Fianna Fail proposed cutting the top tax rate by 5 per cent to 43 per cent. On May 16th it was revealed that Fine Gael's plan would involve £1.5 billion worth of tax cuts over five years, but that these would be focused more on lower and middle income earners, through a combination of increasing tax free allowances, broadening tax bands, reducing PRSI and cutting the tax rates.

The PD/Fianna Fail alliance was forged by Dick Spring in his conference speech in Limerick. Once the campaign began, it was clear the match had been arranged without any detailed consideration being given to whether the parties were compatible. To have any prospect of coming to power after the election, the PDs had to tie their fortunes to those of Fianna Fail. This turned organising a PD campaign into a nightmare.

The PDs' appeal is to a small section of the electorate, and that appeal is based on a distinctive and radical image. Not to put for ward that image would be to damage the party, but to put it forward would damage Fianna Fail, and therefore the PDs chances of being in government.

As the campaign began, the PDs set out to define themselves as distinctive. On May 14th, the day before the Dail was dissolved, Bertie Ahern met the Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, and said he believed the British and Irish governments should meet Sinn Fein before an IRA ceasefire.

A PD spokesman responded quickly. Mary Harney would not meet Mr Adams, nor did she think the governments should talk to Sinn Fein before a ceasefire. The following day a PD spokesman was explaining that there was no difference at all between the parties on the issue. It was a pattern to be repeated as the campaign continued.

The introduction of the PD manifesto provided the government parties with the first opportunity to embarrass Fianna Fail with PD policies. The PDs proposed "new measures to encourage young single mothers to remain with their families, rather than set up one parent homes".

They also proposed that public service numbers should be reduced "through natural wastage and without the need for redundancy payments ... An annual reduction of 2 per cent would cut the number employed in the public service by 25,000 over five years." The Government parties accused the PDs of threatening to cut allowances to lone parents and proposing to fire 25,000 public servants. They had done neither of these things, but the Government parties successfully promulgated the notion that they had. Fianna Fail canvassers began to experience deeply hostile reaction on the doorsteps.

Two days later Ms Harney and Mr Ahern met in Dublin's Green Isle Hotel to paper over the cracks. Fianna Fail sources assured reporters there were no real differences on the two issues. Both parties had signed up for Partnership 2000, so any public service cuts would require agreement with the unions, the sources said. As for single mothers, there would be no cutting of benefits.

Party sources reported they were damaging Fianna Fail by association. After the Green Isle Hotel meeting the PDs toned down some of their distinctive policy positions so as not to harm Fianna Fail. In doing so they may have harmed themselves.

The next day, Monday 26th, it was the turn of the opposition to try to turn a rhetorical difference between Mr Bruton and Mr Spring into a major drama. Mr Bruton had stated before the British general election that a vote for Sinn Fein, in advance of an IRA ceasefire, would be a vote for violence. Now in Derry, Mr Spring said he believed the vote for Sinn Fein had been a vote for peace.

The PDs said the Government was sending conflicting messages. Within a few hours both men had the same line again. Sinn Fein could turn its electoral mandate into a vote for peace if it wanted to.

The Brigid McCole case emerged sporadically during the campaign. Dick Spring revealed at the introduction of his party's manifesto that the Government had been informed three days after the BTSB had begun its intimidatory legal strategy against Mrs McCole. Newspapers reported that the State and the BTSB had shared information on the case, and it was suggested that this contradicted the Government's statement that there was no coordination between the State and the BTSB on the case.

Abortion also made a couple of cameo appearances. First, at the introduction of Fianna Fail's manifesto. Mr Ahern said his party would deal with the issue, there were a number of ways of doing this, the present position was not tenable and the party would decide in due course.

THROUGHOUT the campaign the opinion polls showed the Rainbow parties trailing Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, and in particular they showed the popularity of Bertie Ahern steadily rising. On May 29th, with a week to go, Mr Bruton went on the offensive.

He called Mr Ahern "the most overestimated man" in Irish politics. He was afraid of a real debate, inconsistent and indecisive. Politics was more than "a handshaking marathon".

Mr Bruton made himself more available to the media. On Friday he hosted a rare event, a Taoiseach's briefing for reporters.

The following day Mr Ahern responded with criticism of Mr Bruton for his handling of the peace process. A Taoiseach should adopt the role of leader of nationalist Ireland, said Mr Ahern, but Mr Bruton had not done so.

The two set piece television debates were perceived as providing wins on points for the Rainbow though not by enough to have any major impact on the campaign. Any negative impact that reports of Mr Bruton's "win" over Mr Ahern had were offset the following morning by the results of an IMS opinion poll, published in the Irish Independent, showing the Fianna Fail/PD alliance with a nine point lead over the Government parties.

In addition, that newspaper published a frontage editorial calling for support for Fianna Fail and the PDs. It was the final boost for their campaign.