Sinn Fein prepares to cross the Rubicon

Even if the Sinn Fein leadership wins its expected overwhelming majority at the party's resumed ardfheis this weekend, it will…

Even if the Sinn Fein leadership wins its expected overwhelming majority at the party's resumed ardfheis this weekend, it will not be the end, or even the beginning of the end, of physical-force republicanism.

The Provisional IRA itself will still be in existence on Monday morning, no matter what delegates have decided at the RDS the previous day. But increasingly it is taking the role of guarantor rather than aggressor. It will remain in place as a more-or-less silent threat of what could happen if Sinn Fein is again definitively excluded from the political process. That is one of the reasons the Provisionals keep reiterating that there will be no decommissioning of weapons or explosives.

Meanwhile, those dissident republicans who never signed on for the peace process will continue doing their damnedest to disrupt the best-laid plans of Messrs Adams and McGuinness. The effort to keep the war going led to the untimely death under disturbing circumstances of a young man at Ashford, Co Wicklow last week.

His funeral with paramilitary trappings in the republican plot at Glasnevin Cemetery underlined the scale of the challenge facing Adams and McGuinness as they attempt to divert the republican tide into more peaceful channels.

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The sight of the coffin of Ronan Mac Lochlainn being buried in the grave of 1916 veteran Joe Clarke, described as "the ultimate republican", surrounded by the headstones and monuments of Cathal Brugha, Harry Boland, Frank Ryan and James Stephens, brought home the extent to which the dead generations still weigh upon the lives and mindsets of present-day republicans. Mr Adams may be able to marshal logical arguments in support of his position but the question posed by W.B. Yeats still stands: "Is there logic to outweigh MacDonagh's bony thumb?"

A senior unionist remarked to me last year that republicans seemed to have a terrible distaste for and distrust of politics. But the most striking feature of the emergency motions tabled for tomorrow's ardfheis is that they are suffused with politics.

For example, the resolution urging an end to the ban on taking seats in a Northern assembly points out that "a stronger electoral mandate would conceivably have affected the outcome of the talks". It goes on: "We need to build on our electoral mandate to shape the many negotiations that challenge us in the future."

Noting that the Belfast Agreement "presents challenges to all sides", the resolution states that shirking a challenge was not part of Sinn Fein's make-up: "Presenting others with democratic challenges certainly is."

In the old days, republicans presented others with an AK47 and any talks of "democratic challenges" would simply have been laughed at.

In those days, Sinn Fein was just a support group for the armed wing of the movement and something of an afterthought. That began to change with the concept of the Armalite in one hand and the ballot-paper in the other.

Now we have this resolution arguing that the "potential" of the Belfast Agreement will only be properly developed "if Sinn Fein remains at the centre of the political debate". With this kind of talk, the Armalite could get rusty.

Reports that the IRA had approved participation in a Northern assembly by its members suited Sinn Fein nicely. But the party was furious at the premature publication of its emergency resolutions for the ardfheis.

The leak will make the task of overcoming dissent at the ardfheis that bit harder but it will be a shock if the resolutions are not passed and even the likelihood of a walkout by any sizeable number of delegates seems slight.

When the first instalment of the ardfheis was held last month, many speakers, particularly from the Republic, expressed doubts about the agreement and opposition to the changes in Articles 2 and 3. But this was generally accompanied by declarations of loyalty to and admiration for the leadership and in the light of this and the IRA decision on the assembly, it seems unlikely any dissent will boil over into an immediate split although there will be some fraying at the edges.

In Dublin's Parnell Square, a short distance from the Sinn Fein headquarters, posters of Adams and McGuinness could be seen this week with the motto: "Wanted for Treachery". The Sinn Fein leaders are accused of betraying "the memory of the Irishmen and women who made the supreme sacrafice (sic)".

The posters lost a lot of their force by being anonymous but, along with reports that rival groups are laying claim to the IRA's title-deeds, they were an ominous indication of the climate developing in and around the republican movement.

From the point of view of Adams and McGuinness, it is extremely important to secure a massive endorsement of their policies at tomorrow's ardfheis.

They must show that they have the vast bulk of the movement behind them so that they can argue that the dissidents are merely militarists hung up on outdated dogma. No wonder Sinn Fein was angry and nervous about the leak of its ardfheis resolutions.

Tomorrow, in deciding to enter the Northern assembly and support the agreement North and South, the party crosses the Rubicon.