Seeking peace in the political debris

THE Anglo Irish show is back on the road - but only after a fashion

THE Anglo Irish show is back on the road - but only after a fashion. After the diplomatic warfare of the past week, Thursday's emergency Inter Governmental Conference demanded some show of convergence and common purpose. But the offering, after nearly five hours of crisis talks, was meagre stuff.

Journalists could barely remember a communique so stark or short. As predicted - for they could do no other - the two governments condemned "the widespread violence, intimidation and damage to property visited upon both communities [in the North] over the past fortnight." They recognised "the urgent need to rebuild confidence" in the light of those events, and reaffirmed "the primacy of the political process as the means of achieving this."

And they underlined their "absolute determination to do all in their power" to progress the inter party talks in search of a comprehensive settlement, "an essential component of which is parity of esteem for both the nationalist and unionist communities."

Sceptics might baulk at this last bit, given the Irish Government's very clear view (unchallenged by Thursday's meeting) that the parity concept had just been trampled underfoot.

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And the suspicion that all was not as it appeared was probably reinforced by Sir Patrick Mayhew's assertion that the emergency session had been "timely and necessary." At the very least this marked a significant change in the Secretary of State's attitude.

On Thursday night, both governments bowed to the reality that there cannot even be the appearance of a talks process if London and Dublin are pulling in opposite directions. But it was absolutely clear from the Tanaiste's demeanour that the most immediate challenge is the restoration of confidence between the two governments.

What did you make of the body language? journalists asked each other as the proceedings drew to a close. How did you think Dick looked?

The general consensus was that Mr Spring looked sorrowful and depressed, and that Sir Patrick looked tired.

Sorrowful. Depressed. Tired. That, in a nutshell, might describe the true state of the current Anglo Irish relationship.

The Tanaiste clearly wasn't going to be tricked or trapped by questions about Sir Hugh Annesley's insistence that Drumcree was an operational decision unaffected by political interference.

Irrespective "of how the decision was made, and who was involved in it", Mr Spring said, the task of winning nationalist support for the RUC had suffered an enormous setback.

No benefit of the doubt for the British there. Rather, the stinging rebuke: the Chief Constable had been "very eloquent on the limitations of what the police can do in the absence of political leadership." Mr Spring mischievously failed to make clear which politicians he was referring to.

And the Tanaiste was equally wounding for what he declined to say. He clearly felt he had had some success in explaining the depth of nationalist feeling. The British, he felt, accepted his "bona fides and concern." But did Mr Spring accept Britain's bona fides? The Tanaiste elaborately refused to answer in the affirmative.

Away from the formal presentation, senior Irish sources held out little hope that the declared intent would translate into the pro active role Dublin believes necessary if the Stormont talks process is to be salvaged. One source said the British had listened "dutifully". But he questioned whether they had "the purpose within themselves", or the ability to deliver Mr David Trimble.

And it became clear last night that - in Dublin's estimation - the Ulster Unionist leader will have to alter radically his disposition if the SDLP is not effectively to abandon the process.

On Monday, British and Irish ministers will begin an urgent round of consultations with the parties. The objective is to clear all the procedural hurdles, leaving the way clear for the commencement of the substantive negotiations in the three strands immediately after the summer break.

To Dublin's mind, that means agreement to the appointment of a committee to consider the vexed question of decommissioning in parallel to the three strand negotiations.

The assessment is that nothing less will bring the SDLP back to Stormont after the holiday.

One authoritative source told The Irish Times yesterday: "You can't put the process to bed for the summer, with the promise of a protracted decommissioning dispute come the autumn."

In simple terms, the calculation is that - under pressure of events on the ground - the SDLP "could not sustain that position within their own community."

So, on Thursday, the Irish pressed London to fast forward the talks process. "The instinct, as one source put it, "was to put it to the test." But he maintained there was no sense of assurance that it would happen.

The fear is that the UUP intends to "show a bit of rope", while in effect clearing the debris of the procedural wrangle in preparation for the next, on decommissioning.

And the political judgment seems to have been made in Dublin that maintaining the talks process "at snail's pace" is not an option. As one source put it: "It simply isn't sustainable in terms of public credibility, or in terms of a nationalist perception that David Trimble can dictate the pace of everything."

The Irish believe that a commitment to enter substantive negotiation come September would provide a powerful signal that the talks process has validity. Without it, as one source put it, "the thing is dead."

So when the unionists assemble at Stormont next week, they will effectively be told: "It's make your mind up time." But the assessment of their likely response is sober. Several Irish sources yesterday ventured the suspicion that Senator Mitchell could be on his way home within two months.