Romania, Bulgaria risk EU hopes

EU: As Bulgarians await a new government and Romanians watch their's dissolve, the vagaries of Balkan politics look increasingly…

EU: As Bulgarians await a new government and Romanians watch their's dissolve, the vagaries of Balkan politics look increasingly likely to dash both countries' hopes of EU accession in 2007.

Two weeks of talks following a hard-fought election have failed to forge a coalition in Bulgaria, where the Socialists refuse to let the ex-king, Simeon Saxe-Coburg, continue as prime minister, after beating his allies at the polls. The former monarch, for his part, is adamant that his party will not back any administration that he does not lead.

To the north, the liberal Romanian government called snap elections this week after the Constitutional Court, which is packed with members of the ex-communist old guard, blocked crucial reforms aimed at purging the infamously corrupt judiciary.

Brussels is watching developments, or the lack of, with a furrowed brow.

READ MORE

It has already threatened to postpone both countries' accession for a year unless reform speeded up, and many analysts now expect the deadlock in Sofia and Bucharest to be exploited by the likes of France and Holland, where fears of further enlargement bolstered opposition to the EU constitution.

Bulgaria's Socialist leader Sergei Stanishev, Mr Saxe-Coburg and the head of a smaller, mainly ethnic-Turkish party, claim to have agreed the policy priorities of their nascent coalition and the importance of pushing ahead with EU-stipulated reforms.

But, even as parliament prepares to re-convene on Monday, neither the ex-communist nor the former king look willing to give up their fight for the premier's post.

"We are facing a crisis," admits Rumyana Kolarova, a political analyst at Sofia University. "The chance of our having a stable government is decreasing."

Brussels welcomed the prospect of a deal between the Socialists and Mr Saxe-Coburg's centre-right party, hoping it would marry the fresh blood of the left-wing election winners with the experience of the party that negotiated EU accession.

But now, as the two parties bicker while trying to quietly woo enough independent MPs to secure a parliamentary majority, the EU's patience is wearing thin, especially as Sofia has much to do to meet its accession obligations before 2007.

When Bulgaria's coalition talks hit deadlock, Romania appeared to surge ahead for the first time in their race to be ready for EU membership.

Local experts said the lead couldn't last, and now their scepticism seems justified.

After just six months in office, prime minister Calin Tariceanu resigned this week after ex-communist judges in the Constitutional Court threw out reforms that are both fatal to their stranglehold over the highest court in the land, and crucial to EU accession.

But Mr Tariceanu hopes he was only bidding a brief farewell to power.

He now wants his Justice and Truth alliance (DA) to vote "no confidence" in their own government, prompting the dissolution of parliament and fresh elections, at which his allies expect to win far more seats than they have at the moment.