Election 2024Analysis

Labour’s government dilemma resolved by the tyranny of the numbers

There is a strong expectation Labour leader Ivana Bacik will recommend the party does not proceed with negotiations about joining a coalition government

Labour leader Ivana Bacik: she is likely to recommend the party does not proceed with government talks. Photograph: Alan Betson
Labour leader Ivana Bacik: she is likely to recommend the party does not proceed with government talks. Photograph: Alan Betson
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Thu Dec 12 2024 - 19:00

Labour TDs gather at Leinster House at lunchtime on Friday for a discussion on coalition options and the party’s political strategy as the new Dáil prepares to meet for the first time next Wednesday, December 18th.

There is little chance of a new government being formed by then. But it will almost certainly be clear what it is going to look like. And that will not include the Labour Party.

Several party sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity, said they did not wish to pre-empt any decision taken by the parliamentary party. But all confirmed that it is their strong expectation that leader Ivana Bacik will recommend that the party does not proceed with negotiations about joining a coalition government, and that will be approved overwhelmingly by the TDs. So Labour will be out.

The reasoning is simple: the tyranny of the numbers. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil combined are two seats short of a Dáil majority of 88. That means the two parties are close enough to a majority anyway to significantly diminish Labour’s leverage in both the negotiations on a programme for government and in office.

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Labour sources have examined this from all angles and keep coming back to this point: put bluntly even if they walked out of government there is no guarantee that it would fall and precipitate a general election. A few Independent votes would be found to sustain it. And without the nuclear option, they feel, Labour would be left in a position of untenable weakness.

“If we walked away,” says one senior figure, “the government would continue. We know it. They know it.”

Sure, there are other reasons too. After 10 years wondering if there was any future for the party, sources say, they now finally feel Labour is rebuilding, on a path of growth. Entering government would put that at risk. That is the reality of coalition politics for a smaller party.

And they are looking over their shoulders at the Social Democrats. The two parties – ideological allies on the centre left – are of course deadly rivals for votes. Indeed, Labour has no doubt been especially enjoying the Social Democrats’ difficulties this week.

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It would be the earnest wish of each for the other to enter government – whereupon the party still in opposition would expect to scoop up support from the other. So that’s a factor too.

But mostly it’s about the brutal logic of the numbers. Even those who are inclined to make the best deal that they can recognise the weakness of the Labour position. If the numbers were tighter – if, say, the Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil combination was seven to 10 seats short of a majority – then Labour would be in the game. Another instalment of the party’s periodic internal wrangles over coalition would be on the cards. But the strong expectation of officials and TDs is that will be shut down today.

That is also the expectation of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. “If we needed them more they’d be more interested,” said one Government source.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats are holding the door ajar, at least a bit. Their parliamentary party decided to continue discussions with all parties. But there is – at most – little expectation in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil that the Soc Dems are serious about engaging on the programme for government. “And even if they were,” says one Government insider, “I’m not sure we’d want them.”

After a week of talks and shape-throwing, with plenty more to come, all roads lead back to the Independents.