AS UN TALKS on the future of occupied East Timor start in London today diplomats are underlining the key role Ireland could play in alleviating the crisis in the former Portuguese colony when it assumes the EU presidency.
The talks, at the Dorchester Hotel, involve the UN Secretary General, Dr Boutros Boutros Ghali, the Portuguese Foreign Minister, Mr Jaime Gama, and Mr Ali Alatas, his opposite number from Indonesia whose forces have been occupying the territory in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions since 1975.
Mr Alatas has promised that this week's session will bring substantive progress on the question of East Timor where an estimated 200,000 people have died as a result of Indonesia's invasion and occupation. "It is important that we enter the substantive phase," he commented in Jakarta this month as his government continued to feel the widespread and increasing international disapproval of its actions.
But the regime of Gen Suharto is unlikely to agree to the withdrawal of Indonesian troops as Portugal and the UN Security Council has demanded. For his part Dr Boutros Ghali is unlikely to be pressing Mr Alatas hard.
Realistically Portugal will be urging greater respect for Timorese culture, and most specifically a halt to Gen Suharto's policy of "transmigration", the official settlement of Indonesians on East Timorese territory and a ban on the economic migrants from Indonesia who settle informally. Lisbon will also seek a new round of intra Timorese talks, such as took place in Austria last year, and which resulted in agreement among pro and anti Indonesian factions on the demand for greater Timorese freedom.
The role for Ireland later this year would say conference observers, be that of consolidating a powerful pro Timorese coalition, within the EU. This can be built round Portugal - which the UN continues to recognise as the power responsible for its former colony - Sweden, Finland, Greece, Spain and possibly Austria. Such a majority could out face the pro Indonesia group of Britain, Germany and the Netherlands who have no interest in the departure of Indonesia.
Britain and Germany are supplying war materiel which is helping sustain the Indonesian, occupation. British built Hawk warplanes have been in action over Dili, the East Timorese capital, despite British claims to the contrary, while Bonn has sold; Gen Suharto the bulk of the former East German navy. The Netherlands, whose colony Indonesia once was, is seen as having, psychological hang ups in its relations with Jakarta.
"The British, Dutch and German governments are constantly ridiculing Portuguese diplomats in private and telling them their preoccupation with a distant piece of the East Indies is demented. That has to be stopped," said one conference source. "Dick Spring has taken a different attitude; his action in quitting a meeting with Alatas in disgust last year has not been forgotten. And Ireland has a very good UN record."
Meanwhile, there is worry in Timorese circles at persistent reports from Lisbon that Bishop Carlos Filipe Belo of Dili will be relegated to the provincial town of Baucau when, as seems likely, the diocese of East Timor is divided into two, or even three.