Prodi government fall could mean EMU exclusion for Italy

It was back to the bad old times of inexplicable political instablility in Italy yesterday following the collapse of the 55th…

It was back to the bad old times of inexplicable political instablility in Italy yesterday following the collapse of the 55th government of the post-war era, the centre-left "Olive" coalition led by Mr Romano Prodi and brought down by its rebellious allies, Rifondazione Communista, an ultra-left rump of the former Italian Communist Party.

As Italy faces a future of political uncertainty with an immediate general election by no means guaranteed, the most dramatic outcome of the government's downfall could be Italy's exclusion from the start-up of European Monetary Union.

Speaking in Luxembourg yesterday, the Luxembourg Prime Minister, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, spelt out the message loud and clear in his role as European Union President, saying he had "serious doubts that Italy will be able to show that its drive towards convergency is sustainable".

For the last week, Rifondazione has threatened to break with the government over $3 billion worth of welfare cuts in the government's $14.5 billion deficit-cutting budget for 1998.

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Although Rifondazione did not sit in government, the Olive coalition relied on its 35 parliamentary votes for its survival.

Breaking point came yesterday morning in the lower house when Rifondazione leaders rejected the government's latest amendments to the budget package and the prime minister cut short the debate by announcing his resignation.

In the short term, the State President, Mr Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, will hold consultations with all the major political parties in an attempt to form a broadbased national government to see the budget through parliament.

President Scalfaro, the opposition leader Mr Silvio Berlusconi and some of the smaller centre parties are all opposed to an early general election, while Mr Massimo D'Alema, leader of Democratic Left (PDS), the largest party in the Olive coalition, believes that only a snap election can save Italy's waning credibility with its European partners.

Meanwhile, the Italian political left must ask itself why the first government of the left in the postwar era was brought down by other forces on the left.

The Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Walter Veltroni of the PDS, put it succinctly when speaking of "a historical fracture on the left that will be difficult to mend".