Reopening delays likely as Ireland hits another bump in the road on Covid

You know the measure of the problem by the lateness of the hour. Last night, the Government sub-committee on Covid did not begin its meeting until 9.30pm and went on until the early hours of the morning.

The signs were not promising, especially for restaurants and pubs, hoping that their long purgatorial period of exclusion had come to an end.

It emerged early this morning that the Cabinet would today consider a proposal to allow only those people who have been fully-vaccinated against Covid-19 to be admitted to indoor dining, with a delay of at least two weeks after July 5th to allow the system to be developed.

As Cormac McQuinn reports in our main story the briefing from Nphet on the spread of the new Delta variant made for 'grim listening'.

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Unchecked, according to the modelling, it could lead to a sharp increase in the number of cases and a rise in serious illness and deaths.

“The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths,” McQuinn reports.

It would be a brave and foolhardy administration that would turn its back on that advice. The experience of last Christmas will be enough to deter such a move.

Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly observed that such a rapid increase needed to be taken seriously. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar also said it would be “very difficult and unlikely” for the Government not to heed the advice of Nphet.

So it was all going one way last night, with this morning’s Cabinet meeting expected to confirm yet another bump on the road.

There was some slightly better news on the vaccination front. The National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) will allow AstraZeneca and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccines to be used for the under-40s.

It has also said that the gap between doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine can be cut in half from eight to four weeks.

With full vaccination allowing much higher immunity from the Delta Variant (well over 90 per cent when it comes to serious illness and hospitalisation) that decision will mean the country will reach that point much earlier.

Donnelly moved very quickly on foot of that advice, telling the HSE to implement it immediately. It is good to see there was no hanging around or excessive deliberation.

A two horse race?

The Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI on Dublin Bay South has put a cat among the pigeons. As Political Editor Pat Leahy reports it looks like a two-horse race, although the situation might change in the final week before polling.

James Geoghegan is at 27 per cent which is almost exactly what Fine Gael got in the 2020 election. Ivana Bacik, who has been prominent from day one, is running way ahead of her party’s poll standing at 22 per cent.

“The race appears at this stage to be between these two candidates as none of the other candidates are currently polling strongly enough to mount a challenge,” Leahy reports.

There is a big gap between Sinn Féin’s national standing and that of Dublin Bay South, with Lynn Boylan attracting 13 per cent support. The Green candidate Claire Byrne, at 11 per cent, is getting exactly half of what Eamon Ryan won in the general election. Fianna Fáil is also down with Deirdre Conroy at 10 per cent.

The smaller parties and independent candidates are measured as follows: Sarah Durcan (Social Democrats) 5 per cent; Mannix Flynn (Independent) 5 per cent; Mairead Toibin (Aontu) 3 per cent; Brigid Purcell (People Before Profit) 2 per cent; Justin Barrett (National Party) 1 per cent; Peter Dooley (independent) 1 per cent. Remaining candidates received less than 1 per cent support, the poll finds.

A few caveats need to be entered. The sample is 500 which gives a larger margin of error, minus 4.4 per cent. In addition, byelections rarely slavishly follow the national trend and usually have their own dynamic.

The result makes a bit of a mockery of the Fine Gael narrative that it was a dogfight between it and Sinn Féin. Boylan may be suffering from having little connection to the constituency before entering the race. The poll suggests she has made few inroads in middle class areas but there may be some “shy Shinners” in the leafy suburbs. That said, she seems too far back. Bacik, on the other hand, has been mentioned as a contender as soon as the race was called. During this reporter’s tours of the constituency, her name has been often mentioned. Her brand seems to be running far ahead of the Labour brand here. The corollary is the Labour brand will get a huge boost if she does win.

There’s still a five point gap. And those in front in byelections tend to stay in front (but not always). Transfers are leaky and can spread out - ironically, Bacik’s biggest transfer bonus could come from Lynn Boylan if she stays ahead of her.

Fógra: The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast tomorrow will be a special looking at the curious characteristics of byelections in Ireland. I’ll be guest-presenting and I’ll be joined by Professor Gary Murphy of DCU, who is author of the much-anticipated forthcoming biography on Charles J Haughey.

Best Reads

Pat Leahy's analysis of the opinion poll.

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Fintan O'Toole compares the Government's reluctance to make a CPO for the National Maternity Hospital site with its quickness to do the same with the Corrib gas fields site 20 years ago.

Molly Byrne argues that third-level students need to be vaccinated.

Playbook

The Cabinet meets this morning with one big agenda item: what is going to reopen on July 5th.

In the Dáil, Sinn Féin has brought forward a timely private members motion on affordable housing in Poolbeg in the Dublin Bay South constituency. Prices of €600,000 were mooted and it will allow the party major in the Dáil on one of its big byelection campaign issues: housing.

The Seanad is sitting this morning and dealing with the Counterfeiting Bill, an EU-derived law aimed at clamping down on forgeries of euro notes.

It’s a busy day for committees.

The European Affairs Committee is considering CETA, ahead of its final report in the coming days.

Members of the Commissioned Officers association (RACO) in the Defence Forces will be appearing at the Defence Committee to discuss current issues.

The Environment and Climate Change Committee will hear from the EPA about the 2030 emissions targets and how they can be achieved. As we report this morning, the EPA has some serious concerns about the agriculture sector.

The Housing and Local Government Committee has a discussion on the process to have a directly elected mayor for Limerick.

The general scheme for the Birth Information and Tracing Bill will begin pre-legislative scrutiny before the Children’s Committee.