Only question is will white voters really vote Obama

DESPITE ALL of the polls, and they number in their hundreds, the great unknown of the 2008 presidential race remains the issue of race: will white voters back an African-American to win the White House? So far, the indications are that black voters will come out in unprecedented numbers to support Barack Obama, judging by the numbers who feature in the long lines that have been seen in the states that allow early voting in this election.

However, although the polls put him ahead, it remains unclear whether white voters, even those who tell pollsters that they will back him, will follow through in the privacy of the ballot box.

The shorthand phrase used to describe this is "the Bradley effect", after the failure of black candidate Tom Bradley to win the California governorship in 1984, even though late polls showed him ahead by seven points.

In 1989, another black politician, Douglas Wilder, won the Virginia governorship by just 0.4 per cent when polls had shown him leading by double digits.

However, the California race was more complicated, as Republicans ran a good campaign in the final days to mobilise supporters from the pro-gun lobby and farmers opposed to Bradley's policies. In addition, there is some evidence that his opponent, George Deukmejian, had to cope with his own racial issues because of his Armenian descent.

While Barack Obama enjoys high leads in polls that question people about their voting intentions, the numbers are tighter when people who have not voted before, or voted only sporadically, are excluded.

The Obama campaign has put major efforts into encouraging these categories of voters, and he enjoys high margins of support from them, but he will need them to come out to vote tomorrow.

In Georgia, for example, 34.5 per cent of registered voters have already cast their ballots, and the 77 per cent turnout figure achieved in 2004 will be breached, and easily.

Blacks make up a third of all early voters in Georgia - up from a quarter four years ago: "I am fully expecting a record black turnout," said David Bositis of the Joint Centre for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.

"It's not just a question of Obama as the first black nominee; it's also that African-Americans have suffered substantially under the Bush years and African-Americans have been the single most anti-Iraq-war group in the population," he said.