In the course of the 1982-87 coalition government, four Fine Gael ministers were seen as contenders for the party leadership once Dr Garret FitzGerald departed. Michael Noonan is the last to have a go. Peter Barry never made it despite support from Mr Noonan in 1987. Both Alan Dukes and John Bruton have had their chance.
Now after a career involving three cabinet posts, intense leadership ambition and several severe political setbacks, Mr Noonan stands on the brink of making it three out of four for the class of 1982-87.
He was 39 in December 1982 when he became minister for justice. He will be 58 in May and has little time left to impress. Should he get the job he will probably have just one shot at becoming Taoiseach.
Should he fail to lead the party to electoral success and into government after the next general election, he would be close to 63 when the next chance came. The party would be likely to have gone for a younger model before then.
But at this early stage he is the favourite. He appears to have the support of a clear majority in the event of a straight contest with Mr Mitchell.
The only potential for a close contest would come if a strong third candidate emerged. With Mr Ivan Yates insisting he won't run, the prospect of an effective anti-Noonan candidate does not appear great. Party colleagues say Mr Noonan has been demoralised and demotivated for much of the past year. He was accused of "lacking bottle" as a result of not coming out against Mr Bruton during last November's Austin Deasy-inspired heave.
However, in the last fortnight, according to colleagues, he has been dynamic. He is a man who believes his time has now come.
He is among the most clearly defined politicians in the public mind. He has several instantly recognisable attributes: a bald shiny head, a heavy Limerick accent, tough talk and an unbeatable line in witty metaphor.
From Scrap Saturday to every bar-room mimic in the country, he is taken off with a mixture of gentle mockery and regard.
He is the master of the humorous soundbite, his deadpan delivery in a heavy Limerick accent adding to the effect.
Sometimes the listener isn't sure whether he is looking for a laugh or being serious ("They'd cut your throat in a church and laugh on the way out" was how he borrowed from Shakespeare to describe Mountjoy prisoners during the 1983 prison officers' strike).
He is an accomplished and experienced politician. In December 1982, just 18 months in the Dail, he became minister for justice.
Within days he was embroiled in a series of difficult issues; he handled them with assurance and quickly earned a reputation as a decisive man of action.
He pursued reforms in the Garda, courts and prison service, increasing Garda powers and facing down a difficult prison officers' dispute.
He handled the telephone-tapping scandal which deeply damaged the Haughey-led Fianna Fail party, dealt with the wording of the 1983 abortion referendum and with various prison riots.
However, in 1985 he was relegated to the department of industry and commerce to make way for Mr Dukes in Justice.
But when Mr Dukes was elected leader in opposition in 1987, he was given the most senior portfolio, finance, which he now holds again.
It demands the most difficult annual set-piece performance of any deputy. As soon as the minister for finance has finished reciting his budget script into the Dail record, the Opposition finance spokesman must stand up and respond, unscripted and at length.
It is a task Mr Noonan has performed effectively over the years. His quick exploitation of the tax "individualisation" controversy in December 1999 sparked a controversy that damaged the Government for many months.
As the party became despondent after the 1992 election losses and failure to get into government, Mr Noonan started to take what he called "positions of leadership". He was seen as openly campaigning as an alternative party leader.
In February 1994 he declared against Mr Bruton in a heave against him and said he would run for the leadership should it become vacant. The heave was unsuccessful, and Mr Noonan resigned from the party front bench.
But when Fine Gael was propelled unexpectedly into government at the end of 1994, Mr Bruton's troubles evaporated and he appointed Mr Noonan minister for health.
His worst period as a minister came when women infected with hepatitis C through receiving the blood product anti-D while pregnant sought compensation.
There were two sides in the simplified version readily understood by the public: the women poisoned by the State and the State which had poisoned them.
Mr Noonan, in what appeared to be a catastrophic political misjudgment, found himself portrayed as being on the wrong side.
Comments he made caused offence to the family of the late Mrs Brigid McCole and other victims, for which Mr Noonan apologised in the Dail.
His inflexible language gave way to a kinder, more human tone and approach, but he suffered substantial political damage.
It was a surprising and inexplicable episode, more so because he is generally seen as humane and empathetic with a sure political touch.
The episode has faded now, but it remains in the Fine Gael memory.