Leadership contest: Michael McDowell's supporters put themselves on show yesterday to suggest he is close to unbeatable writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Just a few hours into the working day yesterday it was already seeming likely that Michael McDowell would become the next Progressive Democrats leader without having to make any great effort.
As a steady stream of party figures came out in public to back McDowell for the party leadership, there was only silence from the other two possible contenders, Liz O'Donnell and Tom Parlon. More tellingly, as two TDs, two Senators and former TD Bobby Molloy declared support for McDowell, there was not one such declaration of support for either of the others.
The first declaration of support for Michael McDowell yesterday morning was the most devastating for the O'Donnell camp. They had always seen Minister of State Tim O'Malley, cousin of party founder and former leader Des, as someone who would back Liz O'Donnell. His backing of McDowell was followed quickly by Galway West TD Noel Grealish. Yesterday morning PD Senators Kate Walsh and Michael Brennan both told The Irish Times they would support Mr McDowell in any contest.
So adding in well known McDowell supporter Senator Tom Morrissey - who declared for McDowell yesterday afternoon - and Mr McDowell's vote for himself, this gave the Minister for Justice six of the 13 parliamentary party votes before lunch yesterday. And on RTÉ radio's News at One, former PD minister and party grandee Bobby Molloy endorsed Mr McDowell.
Sometimes there is an advantage to entering such a leadership contest late, presenting oneself as a fresh candidate and grabbing excited media attention. But if either of the other two were planning to oppose McDowell, the steady stream of declarations of support for the Minister for Justice will have made many party members, councillors and executive members - who have a big say in the outcome - accept McDowell's election as a fait accompli.
Calls from The Irish Times to many PD councillors yesterday identified at least 15 of the 29 who would back McDowell.
Just one Parlon supporter was found among this group, there were no declarations of support for O'Donnell, although the views of about a dozen could not be ascertained.
The string of pledges from PD deputies to support McDowell has another major effect on any possible rival. Only TDs can seek the leadership, and they must be seconded by another of the eight PD TDs. McDowell and his TD supporters - Tim O'Malley and Noel Grealish - would be highly unlikely to second either Parlon or O'Donnell.
Mary Harney has said she will not take any part in the election, so she would not be expected to second either of them.
Fiona O'Malley and Mae Sexton have not declared their position, but are seen as McDowell backers.
So by yesterday evening things seemed so bad for Parlon and O'Donnell that if one of them wanted to run, they would have to be seconded by the other.
The position Tom Parlon will take is of critical importance. His remark on Thursday night to the effect that the next leader would need the strong support of the parliamentary party was an eminently sensible point, but it seemed a curious one for him to be making.
For Parlon's big advantage in any leadership contest would be his popularity among the party membership, which controls 30 per cent of the vote in the electoral college which chooses the leader. An extraordinary number of PD members have signed up from the Laois/Offaly constituency in recent years, and he would therefore bring a strong vote from the members to the electoral college. In contrast, it is believed he would garner very few votes in the parliamentary party in a three-cornered contest involving McDowell and Liz O'Donnell.
So in suggesting that strong support in the parliamentary party was vital, he seemed to be making a point against himself. He said yesterday he was still "reflecting" on his position. A decision by him not to run but to back one of the other two possible contenders would have a decisive effect. A declaration that he backed McDowell would end it as a real contest. A decision to back O'Donnell might make her a viable candidate.
It was notable that yesterday evening, Senator Tom Morrissey, the parliamentary party member most closely identified with McDowell, went on national radio to suggest that Tom Parlon would make an excellent party president if McDowell moved from that position to become leader.
This led to immediate speculation within the PDs that a deal was close in which Parlon would support McDowell and become party president in return. Indeed, one source speculated that Parlon would end up as McDowell's proposer or seconder.
Ms O'Donnell could not be contacted for comment last night. However several party sources said that the apparently orchestrated stream of declarations of support for McDowell had killed off any possible challenge to the steady march of Michael McDowell to the party leadership and the position of tánaiste.