When Liam Cosgrave crossed the floor to vote against his own government's contraceptive Bill, it was a political sensation. On mature reflection, given Cosgrave's trenchant views on these matters, it wasn't so surprising. You knew where you stood with Cosgrave. Not so with Bertie Ahern. At the weekend he made clear - or as clear as Ahern ever makes anything - that he was firmly behind his besieged Finance Minister. Charlie McCreevy ought to have known then that his goose was cooked. A strong statement of support from the Taoiseach usually presages your P.45. Ask John Ellis. Or ask the quiet man of attorneys general, David Byrne, how he became European Commissioner. Because Bertie was firmly behind the candidacy of Brian Cowen. He was also firmly behind Ray Burke.
And, of course, he actually showed his completed ballot paper to Albert Reynolds. Until that point Albert thought he would be president. It can't be said that Drapier didn't warn McCreevy. Last week I said McCreevy and Mary Harney would hang tough with the full backing of Michael McDowell, who authored a similar proposal a decade ago. But I predicted Bertie would cave in. However, the spectacle of Bertie acquiescing in the political assassination of his own Finance Minister is not something that could have been envisaged. Pat Rabbitte was in first to ask the Taoiseach to explain why his own press office was organising the parade of Fianna Fail backbenchers to oppose their own Government's Budget.
John Bruton said the protests were orchestrated. These charges seemed over the top but the word had gone out to other than the usual soreheads. McCreevy was being stubborn and a bit of pressure was to be welcomed and at the same time would deny the Independents credit for the inevitable U-turn. Two birds with one stone. Meanwhile, the rumour machine fixed the PDs with authorship of the individualisation of tax bands. One of the more unlikely rumours concerned Sean Doherty. Although the Roscommon TD was not part of the orchestrated parade for the cameras, he was reported as being furious about the antifamily nature of the Budget. The inside word was that Bertie was immensely impressed with Doherty's performance at the DIRT inquiry and he was being considered for Cabinet office in the reshuffle that would follow David Andrews's resignation. Only the swashbuckling Irish editor of the Sunday Times ran with that one. The diva from Dun Laoghaire will have a few more swansongs before he bows out.
The PDs were easy fall-guys. In the first flush of Budget euphoria their sturdy standard bearers in the Seanad put down a motion singling out for particular praise the double-income family breakthrough. Mary Harney was bruised but unbowed and certainly unrepentant on Questions & Answers. The motion came for debate on Wednesday night, after the Uturn was complete, to the mortification of its sponsors and to the glee of the Opposition. Joe Higgins wondered if the measure had been dreamt up in the south of France. The SIPTU intervention proved as decisive as it was unexpected. The initial response of the ICTU seemed very positive. Des Geraghty opened a second front on behalf of the lower paid. The relatively miserly concessions to the people at the bottom had been largely ignored in the "stay-at-home spouses" controversy. IBEC conceded there was little point in pay talks for a successor to Partnership 2000 without SIPTU.
More awkwardly for the Government, IBEC also conceded that it was part of the national consensus that argued for tax reductions to be targeted at lower to middle-income earners. This implied emphasis being on widening the tax bands and increasing the personal allowances. Essentially this was IBEC making almost common cause with SIPTU! Ruairi Quinn and the Labour Party ran with the SIPTU agenda and suddenly the cornerstone of the Government's economic and social policy - social partnership - was at risk. McCreevy stoutly reminded anyone who would listen that the Fianna Fail/PD combination got a mandate in the general election for his brand of tax reductions. But his Taoiseach conceded to the unions that the Budget was "lacking in balance", almost as if he was not really involved - an impression he reiterated for political journalists during the week. His undertaking that he himself "will become actively involved in negotiations" for a new agreement is a signal the Harney/McCreevy axis couldn't be let loose in pay talks.
There is no doubt but that McCreevy has been politically damaged. He could not get his Budget through the Dail without changes. Worse, from his point of view, was the signal that further changes can be anticipated. It is more difficult to assess the extent of damage suffered by the Government. The media management operation may have been more successful than the Opposition thinks. The airwaves were bombarded with doughty Fianna Fail backbenchers hauling their Finance Minister back to the real world. The Independents were squeezed in the process. The parade started all over again to explain how successful the same backbenchers had been. The Opposition rarely featured.
And yet those of Drapier's colleagues who have been around for a while believe the Government has taken some water. Mna na hEireann will not forget and are unlikely to forgive. The patch-up job is less than convincing and the debate unleashed will not go away. The NESC report advocating tax reductions from the bottom up and a drive against poverty is back on the agenda. The essential plank of the Government's fiscal strategy will not survive successful negotiations for a new social contract. The ICTU has been brought back to earth and the cause of the lower paid has been asserted.
Charlie McCreevy and Mary Harney can only grin and bear it. But McCreevy, in particular, may yet conclude he can't live with it. In that event, Jackie Healy-Rae's prudent purchase of oil for his bicycle may yet come in handy.