VARANASI – From the snowbound Chinese border to holy Ganges cities, tens of millions of Indians began voting yesterday in a month-long election with signs that an unstable coalition may emerge in the middle of economic slowdown.
The ruling Congress party-led coalition appears to lead against an alliance headed by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but both may need the support of a host of smaller and unpredictable regional parties to win.
Maoist rebel violence marred the mostly peaceful vote, with five election officials killed in a landmine blast in Chhattisgarh state. Eleven police were killed across the central and eastern “red belt” where yesterday’s election was centred. India’s Election Commission estimated the preliminary voter turnout at 58-62 per cent.
The main fear among investors is that the world’s largest democratic exercise, involving 714 million voters and hundreds of parties, will lead to the rise of a “third front” government of communist and regional groups. “The signs are the election will lead to a short-lived arrangement,” said V Ravichandar, of Feedback Consulting, which advises multinationals in India. “It will be like Italy – something happens every year or year-and-a-half.”
The uncertainty comes as a once-booming India reels from a crunch costing millions of jobs. It has ignited fears of political limbo just as India balances needs to help millions of poor with worries over its biggest fiscal gap in two decades.
The government deployed hundreds of thousands of police to protect more than 140 million people who could vote yesterday in polls that covered some of India’s poorest states hit by the four-decade-old Maoist insurgency.
Maoists, saying they are fighting for poor farmers, kidnapped eight poll officials in Jharkhand state. In some areas, people did not vote, fearing attacks by the rebels who had threatened to cut off their hands.
Prime minister Manmohan Singh has described Maoist violence as India’s biggest internal security threat. Some 500 civilians and police were killed in insurgent clashes last year.
The outcome of the five-stage election will be known on May 16th. India’s elections are notoriously hard to predict and polls have been wrong in the past. Exit polls are banned. – (Reuters)