LABOUR IN CRISIS:IF GORDON Brown survives to fight the general election as prime minister, he will look back to a few crucial hours on Thursday night as the moment when his premiership was saved.
In a stroke of good fortune for Brown, Peter Mandelson and Ed Balls were in Downing Street discussing how to relaunch his premiership when Brown learned of a grave threat to his position.
Shortly before 10.00pm, as the trio discussed the cabinet reshuffle in Brown’s study, James Purnell called Downing Street to tell the prime minister he was resigning from the cabinet after losing confidence in his leadership.
Brown, Mandelson and Balls spent the next two hours ensuring a potential threat to Brown from the Blairite wing of the cabinet was stamped out. Brown went to bed in his flat above No 11 at about midnight, though Mandelson did not leave Downing Street until 1.30am.
In the hours after Purnell’s call, Mandelson phoned a series of Blairite cabinet ministers who might have been tempted to join the outgoing work and pensions secretary to persuade them to stay on board.
His role was crucial. He is something of a father figure to the young Blairites and shares many of their concerns about Brown’s struggle to connect with voters.
Mandelson’s message was clear: Brown is the best person to lead Labour through the economic crisis. Replacing him now would lead to an upheaval which would guarantee an even greater defeat at the next general election. “There’s nobody better out there,” one Whitehall source said. “The alternative would be to consign Labour to massive upheaval and disruption.”
The Blairites who declined to follow Purnell’s example fell into two groups: those who agreed with Mandelson, Labour must stick with Brown; and those who who were prepared to follow Purnell’s example, but only if there was a clear, and organised, campaign to unseat Brown.
Foreign secretary David Miliband fitted into the first category. He was one of the few cabinet ministers to be brought into Purnell’s confidence as to his intention. But Miliband had a clear message for his friend. “James did what he did, but David tried to talk him out of resigning,” one source said.
The Purnell and Miliband relationship dates back to when they worked in Tony Blair’s policy unit in his first term as prime minister; it could be important in the future.
Purnell may become a significant figure if Labour goes down to a heavy defeat at the next general election, but he made clear in his resignation letter that he does not want to be leader of the Labour Party. He would support Miliband if he decides to throw his hat into the ring.
John Hutton, who stood down as defence secretary, symbolises the second set of Blairites. This group of ministers were considering using their resignations to wound Brown, but were only willing to do so if there was a clear and organised campaign to replace the prime minister.
Hutton had long made clear that he wanted to resign, because he would not be standing at the next election. But he stood back from attacking Brown in his resignation letter after failing to hear a strong assurance from Alan Johnson, the new home secretary, about his intentions. Johnson indicated that he shared the concern about Brown, but he echoed Mandelson’s warning that removing Brown would massively destabilise the Labour Party.
He also indicated that he believed it was wrong to make a judgment until the full outcome of Thursday’s voting is known, when the results of the European parliamentary elections are announced tomorrow night.
The new home secretary’s support for the prime minister had firmed up by yesterday after the overnight operation involving Brown, Mandelson and Balls. Key members of the cabinet agreed to stay after winning assurances that Brown would mend his ways.
These ministers believe they have won two assurances. First, that cabinet ministers such as Alistair Darling will not again find themselves briefed against. There was deep anger in cabinet when Darling, a respected figure, found himself being referred to in the past tense by Brown earlier in the week. Second, ministers believe they have won assurances that Brown will make more of an effort to consult ministers and backbenchers, ensuring no repeat of the YouTube fiasco when he announced a series of unilateral proposals on expenses. “There needs to be a completely new way of doing things,” one source said.
Nevertheless, even Brown’s supporters are still unsure he can survive. “This is the last throw of the dice,” one senior figure said. “The jury is out as to whether it succeeds.” – (Guardian service)