Mad cows could cast a long shadow

PRIORITY No 1: take the heat out of the BSE, or mad cow disease, crisis

PRIORITY No 1: take the heat out of the BSE, or mad cow disease, crisis. No one at the Foreign Office in Rome wants to admit it, but as Italy nears the end of its six month term of Presidency of the EU, there is real concern that on going tensions between the UK and its 14 EU partners could entirely sidetrack the imminent Florence summit and see the Italian Presidency conclude on an acrimonious note.

Not for nothing has Italy been among the most sympathetic of the partners towards the UK government. The Foreign Minister, Mr Lamberto Dini, has taken every available opportunity to argue that Britain's BSE problem and the consequent EU ban on British beef exports was not Britain's problem alone but that of the entire Union.

Nor was it coincidental that what the British Foreign Secretary, Mr Malcolm Rifkind, called a "turning point" in the BSE crisis came this week in Rome following a meeting between Mr Dini, Mr Rifkind and the British Agriculture Minister, Mr Douglas Hogg.

Although Foreign Office officials responsible for planning the Florence summit insisted this week that it was for Italy, as President, rather than for the UK to determine the agenda, that bureaucratic attitude simply ignores political realities.

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Mr Dini has been much more realistic, saying on several occasions in recent weeks that he hoped to have the BSE issue resolved before Florence.

Perhaps he might have already done it. Certainly, Italy would appear to have already pulled one significant iron out of the fire in the shape of the Slovenia agreement. At the beginning of the Presidency, Italy had promised to resolve its historic problems with the former Yugoslav republic, preparing the way for an association agreement between the EU and Slovenia.

That agreement is due to be signed in 10 days in Rome. However, Britain had been threatening to apply its "non cooperation" policy to the Slovenia agreement, and it was only following this week's Rome meeting with Mr Dini that Mr Rifkind announced that Britain would sign, adding that its willingness to "co operate" had been prompted by Italy's determination to broker a compromise.

Bureaucrats at the Italian Foreign Office probably breathed a sigh of relief when they heard Mr Rifkind's promise.

Those same officials suggest that three issues, BSE apart, will dominate Florence monetary union, unemployment and the Inter Governmental Conference (IGC) report.

The growing belief in the market place that monetary union will happen, along with the release this week of the employment programme of the European Commission President, Mr Jacques Santer, and the "work in progress" of the IGC, so far satisfactory, are all potential upbeat notes due to be sounded in Florence.

Italy will claim that the Slovenia agreement, the March EuroAsia conference in Thailand, a Combat Drugs programme and an agreement on the setting up of a Europol or EU co ordinated police force all represent a reasonable haul for its Presidency.

The Europol agreement, however, is still dependent on the withdrawal of the British veto.

Given the nature of EU business, most of the issues which dominate Florence are also destined for carry over into the Irish Presidency which begins on July 1st. Whatever about the BSE problem, the questions of monetary union, unemployment and the overall review being carried out by the IGC are all clearly long term issues which will go right through the Irish Presidency and beyond.

While the Irish prepare, the Italian Foreign Office looks back with quiet satisfaction at a six month term which survived the upsets and trauma of a general election campaign, not to mention a deal of scepticism about the competence of the former foreign minister, Ms Suzanna Agnelli. Brussels insiders report that meetings chaired by Ms Agnelli were among the most chaotic and confusing of recent EU times.

Curiously, that general election may well have a proved a major plus factor in the end. It is no secret that majority opinion among Brussels delegations favoured the new centre left Prime Minister, Mr Romano Prodi, and was opposed to the centre right Mr Silvio Berlusconi.

All in all, Italy has reason to be well pleased with its term of EU Presidency and can look forward to a successful summit, BSE permitting, of course.