IN November 1993, elections were held in Jerusalem for a new mayor and city council. Labour's candidate was the incumbent, beloved veteran, Mr Teddy Kollek who had held the post for the previous 26 years. The Likud challenger was Mr Ehud Olmert, a middle ranking Knesset hardliner.
The polls predicted a close race, but Mr Olmert won by a landslide. While many secular and Arab citizens didn't bother voting, the city's substantial ultra orthodox population turned out en masse, and voted as one for the Likud candidate. Why? Because in a secret election eve deal, Mr Olmert had persuaded the ultra Orthodox community's own candidate for mayor, Mr Meir Porush, to withdraw in exchange for the guaranteed position of deputy mayor and wide ranging promises of ultra Orthodox power in running city affairs.
Two weeks before Israel votes in an election that will determine the direction of the peace process, rumours are rife that a similar deal has been brokered again a deal designed to bring the Likud candidate for prime minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, into power on the strength of mass ultra Orthodox support.
Because of a commitment to avoid relinquishing West Bank sovereignty to the Palestinians, Mr Netanyahu can in any case reasonably expect to garner a high proportion of votes in the predominantly right wing ultra orthodox community. But Labour party sources now claim that an explicit bargain has been struck, with Jerusalem again the focus.
According to Labour activists, Mr Olmert and his deputy, Mr Porush, have reached an arrangement whereby Jerusalem's ultra Orthodox faithful, dutifully following their rabbis orders, will all vote for Mr Netanyahu. In return, Mr Olmert will vacate the mayor's office, and clear the path for Mr Porush to succeed him. And as a mark of his gratitude, Mr Netanyahu as new prime minister would name Mr Olmert to a senior cabinet position either defence or foreign affairs.
Mr Olmert's office last night issued an unequivocal denial, insisting that the mayor "has no intention" of abandoning his city, and that the rumours were the baseless product of Labour Party "scare tactics".
But the precedent of 1993 means that the notion of such a deal is both plausible and feasible. For secular residents of the city of is also nightmarish, conjuring up visions of streets closed to traffic on the Jewish sabbath, cinemas and restaurants closed on the day of rest, and ultra Orthodox neighbourhoods sprawling unconfined across the city.
That Jerusalem would one day have an ultra Orthodox mayor has seemed likely for some time. Projections indicate that the ultra Orthodox community will grow from its present 30 per cent of the city's Jewish population to 40 per cent in the next 15 years. But an Olmert Porush deal, if its has been brokered, would hasten the transition, as well as providing a possibly critical boost to Mr Netanyahu's election chances.
Mr Netanyahu's Likud party yesterday castigated the government in the wake of Monday's West Bank shooting in which a Jewish student was killed. The killers, a party statement charged, had come from West Bank territory under Mr Yasser Arafat's control, then fled back there to safety. Mr Peres retorted that the shooting had taken place in a West Bank region still controlled bay Israel.
Labour is terrified that a major attack on an Israeli target before the election could hand victory to Mr Netanyahu. Thus, the Foreign Minister, Mr Ehud Farak, has said Israel may further tighten its strict closure orders on the West Bank and Gaza.