Despite intensive last-minute discussions within the republican movement late last night, suspension of the North's political institutions this afternoon now seems inevitable.
This is likely to throw up a new Catch 22 situation. Decommissioning doesn't happen, so the institutions are suspended. But the suspension may cause the IRA to withdraw its interlocutor from the decommissioning body, thus making decommissioning even less likely.
As we face into deeper political crisis on the issue, it should be remembered that the emphasis both sides place on this issue defies rational rules of logic.
As Mr John Hume has said regularly, a paramilitary organisation could decommission a truckload of weapons today and buy another truckload tomorrow. It could ensure the continuation of the new political institutions through a gesture of decommissioning while leaving the vast bulk of its arsenal intact. So for unionists decommissioning would not significantly reduces the chances of future violence. For the IRA it would not significantly weaken its capacity to wage war, should it want to. Yet both sides, at the time of writing, appear willing to risk the entire peace process rather than give way on the issue.
It was the UUP which cranked this into a major issue, but it was also the UUP which made the most significant movement in an effort to resolve the impasse. Last year Mr Trimble jumped first and entered government before any decommissioning took place.
"We've jumped, you follow," said Mr Trimble to the republican movement at his televised press conference from the Waterfront Hall. But the IRA hasn't jumped. Mr Trimble and Government sources differ on how explicit the private decommissioning promise was in November. However, neither had any doubt then that progress on decommissioning by the time Gen de Chastelain reported at the end of January was the key to continued UUP participation in the Executive. No such progress has been made.
What the IRA has done is to give a statement to Gen de Chastelain - which is understood to be included in the general's report - on its view of where things stand. There is speculation this statement is similar to a public announcement issued by the IRA this week pointing out its ceasefire is intact and in its fifth year, that it wants a "permanent peace", that its guns are silent and that "there is no threat to the peace process from the IRA".
In an article published in this newspaper today, Sinn Fein's Mr Gerry Adams suggests the general's report be viewed positively, and draws attention to these IRA comments. But the bottom line in relation to the statement is what is missing: there is no declaration that decommissioning has taken place, is about to take place, or, indeed, will ever take place.
This afternoon's suspension is an inevitable result of this omission. The British legislation likely to be introduced at Westminster next week will suspend, but not abolish, the Assembly, the Executive, the North/South Ministerial Council and the British/Irish Council. Ministers, junior ministers, and committee chairpersons will cease to hold office. The functions of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister will be assumed by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Mr Peter Mandelson, while other Northern Ireland Office ministers will take over the functions of the other ministers.
Only the London/Dublin institution - the British/Irish Intergovernmental Conference - will continue to operate. According to Government sources, the North/South implementation bodies will be wound down over a three- to four-month period rather than suspended immediately, as there are contractual obligations to their employees.
As well as British legislation, a short piece of legislation will have to go through the Oireachtas as well, reversing the devolution of powers from Government departments to the new bodies.
Then the way will be clear for the "review" of the Belfast Agreement, but in truth there is little to review. Instead, the ingenuity of the two governments and the political parties will be tested to the limit in efforts to find a way through the decommissioning issue. Since 1994, a way has been found to kick it into the future for resolution at a later date. There may be a chance of doing that just once more at this stage - just three months before the actual deadline in the Belfast Agreement.
But the buffers are in sight and the reality is the peace process, moving forward painfully slowly for over five years, is now in danger of crashing.