THERE is "no sign" of an IRA ceasefire in advance of Thursday's election in the North, despite recent speculation to that effect, sources close to the peace process have said.
The possibility of a ceasefire after that date depends primarily on the resolution of the decommissioning issue and the appointment of Mr George Mitchell to a key role in the all party talks, according to informed sources.
There had been considerable speculation in political circles, North and South, that the IRA would call a ceasefire for Wednesday, the day before the Northern elections, possibly preceded by a so called "spectacular" along the lines of the Canary Wharf bombing. Senior British sources have said, however, that a "spectacular" linked to a ceasefire would bring about a united front across the Commons to preclude Sinn Fein from admission to the talks.
Sources in the peace process said it was unlikely the British government would agree to a formula on decommissioning ahead of the elections for fear of embarrassing the Ulster Unionist Party. The likely showing of the UUP in Thursday's poll, given the plethora of unionist parties on the ballot paper, is a subject of some concern to those involved in the peace process.
The prospects for a ceasefire were not helped by the apparent deadlock in this week's meeting between the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, and the Northern Ireland Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew.
However, peace process sources expressed considerable confidence that the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, was winning the argument in the republican movement for a political, rat her than military, approach. It was seen as highly significant that the list of Sinn Fein candidates for Thursday's election included at least six figures with long standing reputations as republican militants.
Political sources expressed concern that the British government might adopt a strategy of holding off agreement with Dublin on decommissioning and on the appointment of Mr Mitchell until the last minute. Sources said this would be with a view to weakening the Irish negotiating position by exploiting differences of emphasis between the coalition partners, so that Dublin would end up agreeing to "something the republican movement could not accept".
Political sources expressed concern that the unionists might in effect, be given a veto over the talks, so that if there was no decommissioning within, for example, the first three weeks, the unionists would withdraw and the talks would be allowed to collapse.
Meanwhile, the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, met an Alliance Party delegation in Government Buildings yesterday. Afterwards, he stressed the importance of an IRA ceasefire for the success of the talks, "from the point of view of having everybody there."
He added that "the logic of the situation, from the point of view of the republican movement, is that they should be represented in the talks and the logic, therefore, requires, clearly, that there should be an IRA ceasefire. Asked about the prospect of the two governments agreeing a role for Mr Mitchell, the Taoiseach said the question of personnel was currently under discussion and would be addressed at the next meeting of Mr Spring and Mr Mayhew on Tuesday.
Dr John Alderdice, the Alliance Party leader, said he hoped they would find an IRA ceasefire "coming forward in a solemn and solid fashion in advance of June 10th".