An additional 523,000 people will suffer from a chronic disease by the end of the decade, writes RONAN McGREEVY
HUGE INCREASES in the number of people suffering from chronic illnesses will put a major strain on the health service by the end of this decade, the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has warned.
The number of people suffering from high blood pressure is projected to increase by 40 per cent, coronary heart disease by 50 per cent, strokes by 48 per cent and diabetes by 62 per cent by 2020. In total, projections suggest an additional 523,000 people will suffer from a chronic disease by the end of the decade.
Launching the IPH’s Making Chronic Conditions Count report yesterday, associate director Prof Kevin Balanda warned that obesity had been factored into the projected increase in the prevalence of diabetes only.
It might lead to forecasts that are “even more disturbing” in the future for other chronic illnesses. “If anything, these figures are likely to be conservative,” he explained.
The present projections are based on socio-economic and lifestyle factors.
He said the incidences of chronic disease were likely to increase because of the rise in population and an ageing population, but “what surprised us is the size of the increase”.
The study, which was carried out both north and south of the Border, confirmed earlier reports about the higher prevalence of chronic illnesses in people in the lower-socioeconomic groups. The incidences of chronic heart disease in the most deprived parts of the Republic are almost 2.5 times that of the least deprived area.
Ivan Perry, professor of Public Health at University College Cork, said the issue of health inequality could only be addressed by further investment in education and lessening income differentials. He said the two-tier health system in this country “contributes hugely” to inequality in health.
Prof Balanda recommended that more resources be put into health promotion which currently accounts for only 3 per cent of the health budget.
IPH chief executive Dr Jane Wilder said 80 per cent of chronic illnesses could be prevented if major risk factors such as obesity and smoking were eliminated. She said there were already government policies in place to promote healthier lifestyles, but the focus needed to be on early childhood and the needs of vulnerable and disadvantaged people.
“Chronic diseases cause early death, immense suffering and reduce quality of life. Understanding current need and future prevalence and how it varies with factors such as age, sex and geography and local socio-economic circumstance is essential for good planning,” she said.