ANALYSIS: Despite the lack of a clear surge in national polls, the Greens are sure their hour is near, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
Following funeral pyres for foot-and-mouth diseased cattle, the discovery of illegal dumps and declining air and water quality, the Green Party should be riding high in the polls.
That has not happened. Nevertheless, the environmentalists believe Election 2002 will prove to be a landmark, and may offer entry into the corridors of power.
So far, the Greens feel ignored by the media as the larger parties successfully scramble to dominate the headlines.
Standing on the Liffey's Millennium Bridge on Thursday, Green Party Dublin South Central candidate, Ms Kristina McElroy, voiced the typical frustration.
She had been ignored in a newspaper constituency review. "Despite what you might read, I am getting a very positive response on the doors. Where do you people get your information?" she complained to The Irish Times.
Up to now, the campaign has gone well, partly because the Greens have stayed on safe ground by talking about the lack of childcare, the public transport crisis and environmental issues.
Throughout, they have emphasised competence: colleagues elsewhere in the European Union have performed well.
In addition, the images have subtly changed. Following the launch of the party's manifesto, Green TD Mr John Gormley was furious after one of the papers published a photograph of a party member on a bicycle. "That is the kind of image that we are trying to get away from," he grumbled.
Up until Thursday night's RTÉ Prime Time programme, the party managed to avoid being skewered by some of its more eccentric economic policies. Mr Gormley grimaced when reminded of past calls for price controls, protectionism and a semi-independent monetary policy, despite the fact that the Republic is part of the eurozone.
The old policy document was "a good read", he argued. "But if people want to know what we are standing for in this election they should read the manifesto."
Currently, the environmentalists hold two Dáil seats: the party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, in Dublin North, and Mr Gormley in Dublin South East.
Helped by slightly greater publicity, Mr Sargent should return safely in the four-seater
In 1997, he retained his seat by picking up transfers to eventually defeat Labour's Mr Séan Ryan by 923 votes without reaching the quota.
In Dublin South East, Mr Gormley overcame the challenge of the then outgoing Progressive Democrats TD, Mr Michael McDowell, after one of the longest recounts in the country's history.
Opinion about the outcome in the constituency, which ranges from leafy suburbs in Ranelagh to Ringsend, varies, depending on the observer.
Fianna Fáil has a chance of two. Fine Gael's vote in what was once a heartland area appears to be imploding.
In the beginning, Mr Gormley and Mr McDowell seemed destined for yet another gladiatorial contest. Today, some argue that Mr McDowell will challenge Fine Gael's Ms Frances Fitzgerald, rather than Mr Gormley.
For a successful election, the Greens must hold both seats. But it must add two to its numbers if it is to have any real role to play in the post-election negotiations that will follow May 17th.
Mr Sargent yesterday expressed "quiet confidence" that the Greens will take four, to five in all.
One possible "gain" may come from Dublin South. There, the party's Cllr Eamon Ryan is figuring on the radar of other parties.
Privately, Fianna Fáil say that Mr Ryan will take the fourth seat, leaving Fine Gael's Mr Alan Shatter, Labour's Eithne Fitzgerald and the Progressive Democrats' Minister of State, Ms Liz O'Donnell, scrambling for the last seat. The same message about Cllr Ryan is emanating from other quarters, though not with the same certitude.
In Dún Laoghaire, the Greens have Cllr Ciarán Cuffe, though Labour's bid to win two seats there makes the area more competitive than usual.
Interestingly, the Greens best hopes for support lie in the long-established suburbs in both of these constituencies.
"People in the older places know that the Celtic Tiger has brought good things," said a Green Party source.
"But they also know that their daughter now lives in Carlow and their son in Kildare because they cannot afford to buy in the areas where they were brought up."
Outside Dublin, the Greens main hopes lie in Carlow/Kilkenny, where deputy leader, Cllr Mary White, is running; and Cork South Central, with Cllr Dan Boyle. Early this year, he was tipped by some to take the final seat over Fine Gael's outgoing TD, Ms Deirdre Clune.
However, Ms Clune has rallied - backed by her father, the former minister for foreign affairs, Mr Peter Barry, and the expectation of transfers from running mate, Mr Simon Coveney.
Still, Cllr Boyle is in with a chance, if he can stay ahead of Labour's Mr Brendan Ryan on first preference votes.