THE Government's policy of reducing Garda and Defence Force cover along the Border and on anti terrorist duty in response to the IRA ceasefire will be under intense review following the Canary Wharf bomb.
Among the difficult issues to be confronted will also be the early temporary release of IRA prisoners from Portlaoise.
About 40 men and one woman are on temporary release because of the ceasefire and there was an expectation yesterday afternoon that a further seven IRA prisoners were to be released this morning. A spokeswoman at the Department of Justice last night would only say she had "no information" that further releases were about to take place.
There was also no indication of whether the continued temporary release of the freed IRA prisoners is dependent on a continued ceasefire or whether the Government will recall the parolees to prison.
Security at Portlaoise Prison, the State's most secure institution, has been wound down significantly. The Army garrison has been moved to other duties.
Last week the Minister for Justice, Ms Owen, said the remaining 25 IRA prisoners in Portlaoise would be moved to the new prison in Castlerea, Co Roscommon. The IRA prisoners had even issued a statement saying they did not object "in principle" to such a move.
The Minister's new prison policy hinged on the moving of the IRA prisoners, which would free more than 80 places in Portlaoise for "ordinary" criminals. The plan to provide an additional 278 extra prison places may now be in jeopardy.
Along the Border, Garda overtime has been reduced and small numbers of gardai were being moved to duties in Dublin to deal with the crime problem. This policy may have to be stopped or reversed.
The Defence Forces' commitment to Border security was greatly wound down. The two Air Corps helicopters used to patrol the Border have been assigned to other duties.
In response to the ceasefire, the Defence Forces has also reduced its bomb disposal cover in the State. One unit was removed from the Border and another from the Shannon area.
Significantly, the entire rationalisation programme for the Defence Forces, seeking to reduce it in size from a strength of 13,000 to 11,500, might now be called into question.
One of the reasons advanced by the Government for reducing the Defence Forces was the continuation of the ceasefires.
The level of Garda anti IRA activity has fallen off dramatically in the past year. After a number of arms finds in Counties Longford, Louth and Meath at the end of 1994 and the start of 1995 there were no further major arms searches or finds. The only known arms search was in Kerry last month after the local IRA carried out a number of vigilante actions against people it claimed had connections with the drugs trade. It is thought the Garda search was a warning to the local IRA to stop its vigilante activity.
Since then, Garda Special Branch activity appears to have been concentrating on the actions of militant figures associated with Republican Sinn Fein and the INLA. Two attempted bomb attacks in south Armagh by people associated with RSF were intercepted by the gardai. The Garda also intercepted an arms run by the INLA in Co Louth last year and recovered 26 handguns.
One of the immediate matters of concern will be that IRA bombing campaigns in Britain are usually mounted from within the State. Its is known that the group which controlled the last bombing campaign in Britain was based between Dublin and the Border areas and that the technical expertise and equipment came from Dublin.
Technical and forensic evidence from the remains of the bomb at Canary Wharf will quickly indicate if mainline IRA technology is being reused or if the bombers are developing new equipment.
British intelligence officials stated in recent weeks that the ending of the IRA ceasefire would be marked by a bomb attack in Britain but they did not know where or when it would take place.
A report in Thursday's edition of the Financial Times said that British police and the intelligence agency, MI5, had indications that IRA members were moving to London and were believed to be preparing for a bomb attack.
There were also indications from US government sources of a threatening crisis. Senator George Mitchell, whose report on arms decommissioning and political progress was published at the end of last month, said on Wednesday last that there was the possibility of a split in the IRA if there was no political advance.
Still, there was no indication last night that the Garda Special Branch had any warning that the IRA ceasefire was about to be called off.
No alert was issued yesterday and there was no sense of crisis at Garda Headquarters or in the Department of Justice before the first news reports of the IRA attack and statement began.
The first reports alerting the gardai and Department of Justice to the developments are understood to have come from journalists' telephone calls.
However, it is known that gardai along the Border had become concerned about growing militancy among republicans. There were also reports that some IRA units along the Border had already defected to the small paramilitary element associated with Republican Sinn Fein.
Although British intelligence services are understood to have become suspicious recently that the IRA was gearing up to renew its offensive, the publicly expressed view was that the ceasefire was holding.
Only last week the RUC Chief Constable, Sir Hugh Annesley, said it was his information that the IRA ceasefire was still solid despite the gun attack on the home of an RUC reserve constable in Moy, Co Armagh. Some 52 shots were fired at the constable's house from a Kalashnikov rifle, a weapon associated with the IRA.
The attack on the RUC man's house had taken place after the killing of the Irish National Liberation Army leader, Gino Gallagher, in Belfast and it was suspected the gun attack might have been a retaliation by INLA members in Armagh.
It has also been speculated that part of the reason for killing Gallagher was because he was opposed to the IRA ceasefire and that although he was killed by another faction in the INLA, this group had the tacit support of the IRA because it supported the ceasefire.
There had been indications from some Garda sources along the Border of serious disaffection among IRA members in Armagh, Monaghan and Fermanagh in recent months, however.
It is possible that the decision to end the ceasefire was taken to avert a split within the organisation, one Garda source speculated. However, there was no hard evidence to support this.
Garda Special Branch officers will now have to assess the level of threat and the Government will be briefed about the necessary response.