Italy this weekend faces a difficult and complex government crisis after Prime Minister Romano Prodi's centre-left "Olive" coalition yesterday lost a confidence motion in the Lower House by just one vote, 313 to 312.
Mr Prodi presented his resignation to the President, Mr Oscar Luigi Scalfaro, who accepted, although he asked Mr Prodi to stay on in a caretaker capacity. The Prodi government has been in power since May 1996. Yesterday's confidence motion was called after government ally ultra-left party Rifondazione Communista formally withdrew its support for the 1999 Budget bill, which included $9 billion worth of deficit-cutting measures.
The Prodi government has relied on Rifondazione's 34 deputies to ensure a parliamentary majority.
Although Rifondazione itself split on the decision to withdraw support for the government and a dissident majority of Rifondazione deputies voted for Mr Prodi yesterday, their support was not enough to swing the balance upset by the 12 Rifondazione deputies who voted against.
President Scalfaro is faced with perhaps four realistic choices. First, he can ask Mr Prodi to go back to parliament and attempt to form another, different coalition government. Given that Mr Prodi has stated that he will serve as Prime Minister only with the forces represented on his winning electoral coalition of 1996, a second Prodi government seems unlikely.
Second, President Scalfaro may believe it is worth asking another senior figure in the Olive coalition to form a government. If that were the case, then the logical choice would be Mr Massimo D'Alema, leader of the former communist Democratic Left, the biggest party in the coalition. Third, the President could call on figures such as the current Treasury Minister, Mr Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, or the Foreign Minister, Mr Lamberto Dini, to form an across-the-board, short-term national government. Both men are former Bank of Italy directors, and both have led short-term, largely non-party political governments. Fourth, the President could dissolve parliament and call a snap early election. If an election were to be called, it must be held before November 25th since the Italian constitution prohibits elections during the last six months of the state President's term of office which begins on November 25th.
While Mr Scalfaro and senior Olive coalition figures may be unwilling to see an early election called, the centre-right opposition led by media tycoon, Mr Silvio Berlusconi, has no such qualms and issued an immediate appeal for a general election.