Six weeks ago the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll of 2005 was conducted. The backdrop to that survey included a Cabinet reshuffle, the publication of the 2005 Budget and, of course, the pre-Christmas Northern Bank robbery.
In the intervening weeks members of the IRA have been strongly implicated in the murder of Robert McCartney, while what has been described by the Government as a major IRA money-laundering operation unfolded dramatically across a number of locations south of the Border.
Meanwhile, in a high-profile judgment, the courts have ruled that deductions taken by State institutions from old folks' pensions over the years are illegal.
On the latter point, much of the media attention concerning these deductions focused on Mary Harney's track record regarding the issue.
In particular, her past statement that pensioners should expect to make a contribution towards their upkeep in State homes was compared to those made by her in accepting the Supreme Court's ruling of illegality.
Perhaps linked to this emotive topic, Harney's personal satisfaction rating has dropped significantly by seven points over the last five weeks. Nevertheless it is still higher than that of any of the opposition party leaders, with core PD support as steady as ever.
All in all, Fianna Fáil should be pleased with its showing today. Party support is on a par with that recorded last month, in itself its best opinion poll performance since before the last election. While solid, the combined Coalition Government figure of 41 per cent is still some way off the 46 per cent it achieved in the 2002 election.
Having consolidated its support over the last few months, Fianna Fáil will now look towards building its vote as the economy continues to improve, consumer confidence grows and the prospect of a significant cash injection, by way of Special Savings Investment Accounts, soon to mature, becomes a reality over the next year or so.
The results of October 2004's poll suggested that Enda Kenny had finally arrived centre-stage, recording a satisfaction rating significantly higher than any Fine Gael leader had achieved in recent years.
While Kenny and his party have maintained their support levels, there will be concern that Fine Gael's preferred coalition partner has slipped in the polls since autumn 2003.
Both Labour and Fine Gael still have work to do in building their support to a point where they would be in a position to form a government along with the Green Party following the next election.
Many will view the effect, if any, of the Labour-Fine Gael transfer pact on this month's byelection results with great interest.
Since last month's poll Sinn Féin's leading politicians have been placed under unrelenting pressure from all quarters, as demands increase on both it and the IRA to end all criminal activities.
There is evidence that this intense scrutiny is beginning to take its toll, with a significant drop in satisfaction with Gerry Adams and a marginal slippage in support for Sinn Féin (see Table II).
A drop of two percentage points in party support is within the margin of error for an opinion poll of this nature and, as such, it is difficult to estimate from this alone the likely impact on Sinn Féin's vote in the event of an election. For this reason, the result of the Meath byelection next Friday will serve as something of a litmus test.
In the 2002 general election the Sinn Féin candidate in Meath, Joe Reilly, polled 9 per cent of the first-preference vote, up from 4 per cent in 1997. Along with other party candidates such as Nicky Kehoe in Dublin Central (since retired) and Dessie Ellis in Dublin North West, Reilly was one of those who, at the time, seemed most likely to be returned at the next election, assuming the Sinn Féin vote continued to grow.
Any significant decrease in Reilly's vote on March 11th will be the first tangible evidence of a slowing of the party's momentum in the Republic. However, a static or improved first preference share would suggest that, assuming the party can tackle the issue of republican criminality head-on, it can still gain seats at the next general election.
In the midst of the recent political turmoil, it is of note that none of the key players in the peace process has closed the door fully on Sinn Féin. The Taoiseach has made it clear on more than one occasion that the Government will continue to negotiate with republicans, on the basis that no long-term political solution to the North can work without them.
Similarly, in what some regarded as a surprisingly conciliatory tone, DUP leader Ian Paisley acknowledged that he could envisage sitting in government with Sinn Féin if, and only if, the republican movement wound up all its criminal and paramilitary activities.
Within this context, republicanism must now realise that it has reached a significant crossroads in its journey towards constitutional politics. The dramatic decline in satisfaction with Gerry Adams indicates that the credibility of Sinn Féin as a potential future partner in any Government here is being questioned by an increasing number of voters.
At the time of writing, Gerry Adams has stated that in his opinion the murderers of Robert McCartney should be brought before the courts to face due justice. Meanwhile, a number of Sinn Féin figures have suggested that all witnesses to the murder should pass their information on, either directly or indirectly, to the PSNI; in itself a political breakthrough of sorts.
Whether Adams and company will now apply the same rigorous standards to any republicans involved in the Northern Bank robbery, money laundering, or any other criminal activity, remains to be seen.