`Amber alert" is how main opposition party Fine Gael describes the present situation. The party is ready for an election in the autumn but, no more than anyone else, is uncertain when it will come. To prepare, the new, expanded front-bench of 22 and the entire parliamentary party will meet over two days in Athlone on September 12th and 13th. The focus will be on the political term ahead and a possible autumn campaign.
FG believes totally that the next election will return it to government and that John Bruton will again be Taoiseach. Who the party will coalesce with is less certain. "There will be no FF/FG deal; the only party we will not join with is Fianna Fail so we are telling the electorate that a vote for FG is a vote for change." As the numbers may necessitate a rainbow of three parties FG, like everyone else, is keeping all options open. While Labour and the PDs are likely allies, the backing of the Green nominee for the EIB, Richard Douthwaite, indicates that the Greens could be on board too. "The statement by Mary Harney that there will be no preelection FF/PD pact is very significant and is the death knell of the government. An antisleaze ticket of Bruton/Quinn/Harney could be a very attractive package," a senior FG source said.
Meanwhile, FG must get the seats. The campaign will target the Government's handling of inflation, childcare, the health service and infrastructure - particularly housing. If the current administration is still in power to produce a budget at the beginning of December, FG will be reminding everyone of last year's performance. FG is also seeking new candidates and four new full-time professional regional organisers are co-ordinating voluntary activity.
But isn't FG performing less than brilliantly in the polls, given the Government's dire difficulties just before the recess? Well, yes, says the source, but the polls are deceptive. "They consistently understate the standing of the opposition and overstate the position of Fianna Fail. Tipp South was the last real poll."
And, he said, brimming with confidence, "Government popularity may be a mile wide but it is only an inch thick. It is very brittle and assailable."