Falling factory output makes rate cut more likely

The chances of a cut in interest rates in Britain later this week have strengthened after official data pointed to further woe…

The chances of a cut in interest rates in Britain later this week have strengthened after official data pointed to further woe in the manufacturing sector.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show factory production during May weakened by 0.2 per cent on the previous month.

That put paid to hopes of a sustained recovery after April's 0.3 per cent improvement and compares with expectations of no change among analysts.

The data will be a key consideration for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) when it begins its two-day rate-setting meeting on Wednesday.

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Opinions in the City are divided over whether the MPC will reduce the cost of borrowing to 3.5 per cent - the first cut since February.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at stockbroker Gerrard's, said today's data "strengthened" the case for a cut, although he believed the committee may choose to wait until August before acting.

HSBC economist John Butler added: "In our view the manufacturing sector requires stronger global demand and a sustained lower level of sterling rather than another 0.25 per cent cut in interest rates."

The latest month-on-month decline in output from hard-pressed manufacturers was largely due to significant falls in car production and from the electrical and optical equipment sector.

The performance means the year-on-year rate of decline rose to 2.1 per cent from 1.2 per cent in April, although this mainly reflected distortions caused by last year's Jubilee holiday.

Overall, industrial production rose 0.1 per cent as stronger output from mining and quarrying and electricity, gas and water offset the weakness in manufacturing.