There will be an almost unprecedented volume of political activity on the islands of Britain and Ireland during the days before and immediately after June 7th. The British government has already called local authority elections for that date, which means thousands of candidates will be fighting for thousands of council seats in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Early next week, Tony Blair is expected to name the same day for the general election - which will see hundreds of candidates seek election to Westminster from 659 constituencies in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The only forums not in the loop are the regional assemblies in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast. In the Northern Ireland Assembly, MLAs will continue as normal, although the results could have dire effects on their deliberations and future, and many members will be seeking election that day to both councils and to Westminster.
Shortly, too, the Government in Dublin will name June 7th as the date for three referendums - on the Nice Treaty, ratification of the International Criminal Court and the abolition of the death penalty. Vigorous campaigns will be in full swing on both islands during the weeks leading up to polling, and huge operations will be required on the day itself and later to count and announce the results. While our referendums are of only little interest to London, other European capitals will be paying more attention. The Westminster results, meanwhile, are of great concern to us, so there will be a surfeit of election news on June 8th and 9th.
What do the UK elections mean to us? The Government, and the opposition too (since there is general agreement on the North), want to see Blair returned with a comfortable majority. The alternative, William Hague, is surrounded by right-wingers and that could spell serious trouble for the Belfast Agreement and the Assembly. A Blair government dependent, as John Major was, on unionist votes would be even worse. In the North, the results are desperately important, for the same reason (that David Trimble is not the only pro-Agreement unionist returned to Westminster). There is also the question of whether the SDLP will maintain its lead over Sinn Fein as the representative of nationalists.