Over the past 10 years, there has been a substantial increase in the cross-Border flow of students. In 1985, there were 489 Northern Irish full-time undergraduates studying at universities in the Republic, according to figures from the Northern Ireland Department of Education. Numbers rose dramatically through the Eighties and Nineties, but in recent years the numbers have been declining.

In 1997 there were 1,275 studying in Northern universities. In 1985 there were 71 full-time undergraduates from the Republic studying in Queen's and 178 in the UU. In 1997, the figures tood at 784 and 1,904, respectively ( QUB and UU figures).

The abolition of fees in 1996 in the Republic is unlikely to have made any difference to flows from North to South in that the previously charged fees were paid by the Education and Library Boards in the North and were not, therefore, a personal cost to students.

However, from this year, fees will be levied for new entrants to British and Northern Ireland universities. Whereas, up to 1996, the economically-rational student from the Republic would have enrolled at a university in Britain or Northern Ireland in order to avoid fees charged in the Republic, from this year the same student would remain at home in order to get a free (apart from the ever-rising registration fee) higher education.

Likewise, from this year the economically-rational Northern student would head South in order to avoid fees to be levied for studying in Britain and Northern Ireland.

All is not, of course, based on what is economically rational. In both North and South, there is extreme pressure on the higher education places available, especially in certain subject areas, notably business, law, accountancy, computer science, medicine and dentistry.

At the Centre for Research on Higher Education in Queen's, we calculated that in Northern Ireland we would need 12,000 extra places to match the level of provision in Scotland and 5,700 to match Welsh provision. This serious under-supply forces many students to leave Northern Ireland in order to get a place in the subject of their choice. Much the same pressure applies in the Republic.

The effect of the proposed increases in the personal cost of a higher education on student migration is not altogether easy to predict. Last year, full maintenance support in Britain and Northern Ireland was set at £3,355, made up of a 50 per cent means-tested grant and a 50 per cent loan. This year, full maintenance is set at £3,545, made up of a 25 per cent grant and a 75 per cent loan.

Under government proposals next year, this will be replaced by a 100 per cent means-tested loan. In addition, where residual parental income is £34,000 or higher, a £1,000 fee will be charged; where it is less than £16,000, the fee will be remitted.

The profile of Northern Irish students compared with British students suggests they are drawn from substantially poorer backgrounds. Undoubtedly, many more Northern Irish students now want to remain at home in order to reduce costs.

Protestant students disproportionately head for Scotland. Students in Scottish universities will be fee-charged for the four-year course on offer there. It would appear that Northern Irish students heading for the Scottish universities this year are slightly down on previous years, most notably in the Dundee universities.

A matter of serious concern is the degree to which these proposals will discourage students from poorer backgrounds entering higher education at all. The demography of Northern Ireland suggests a continuing supply of 18-year-olds well into the next century. Hence, there is unlikely to be a lessening in competition for places.

In the Republic, demography suggests the age cohort will peak in 1998 and be followed by a significant decline in the numbers of 18-year-olds. A less competitive market in higher education places should be the result. However, with the introduction of fees in the British system, it's more likely that many more students from the Republic will seek places at home.

EU students, including those from the Republic, will be means-tested for fees. This will result in the interesting phenomenon of the Education and Library Boards in Northern Ireland and the Local Education Authorities in England assessing parents' income in punts, marks, lira, pesetas etc in order to determine appropriate fees.

These agencies will have the task of determining whether or not an Italian farmer, for example, has duly reported his or her income accurately. EU students will not be eligible for means-tested maintenance loans

The future, both North and South, would appear to be of increasing competition for higher education places.

The Dearing Report recommended creating up to 5,000 new places in Northern Ireland to address the shortfall in places. Four options were canvassed to cater for this proposed expansion:

Developing the Springvale campus in west Belfast

Expanding the number of places available in Queen's within its existing estate

Using a summer semester to expand provision in certain courses

Extending sub-degree provision on the Further Education Colleges and the articulation of these programmes with degree-level study in the universities.

Springvale has been given the go-ahead, but little else has been done to alleviate the ever-growing competition for scarce places in Northern universities.

It's by no means clear that the monies generated by transferring the costs of a higher education from the state to the individual will be fully and directly assigned to expanding higher education. A mass higher education system has to be paid for.

The present British government's proposals suggest a withdrawal by the state from paying for it, charging the individual student for the privilege but then retaining for itself the proceeds of this additional income. A system of higher education, already pared to the bone, cannot be expanded to create the opportunities the Dearing report suggests are required.

The cost of higher education is likely to increasingly influence choices made by students. The best guess that can be made is that close-to-home study will become the only option for many students, if they opt for higher education at all.

Professor Robert Cormack is pro-vice-chancellor and codirector of the Centre for Research in Higher Education, Queen's University, Belfast