ANALYSIS:Humiliation looms for party leaders as baffled voters cite not knowing what Lisbon is about as reason for its rejection
IN HIS first major test as Taoiseach, Brian Cowen is facing a humiliating defeat on the Lisbon Treaty unless he can galvanise his party to reverse a dramatic slide in the fortunes of the Yes campaign over the past three weeks. The credibility of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and Labour leader Eamon Gilmore is also on the line.
If the trend revealed in the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll continues until next Thursday, the treaty is doomed to defeat, with unforeseeable consequences for Ireland and the rest of the European Union.
The turnaround in the fortunes of the two sides since the last poll has been stunning. The No side has almost doubled its support to 35 per cent while the Yes side has lost 5 points to 30 per cent.
The scale of the task facing the Yes campaign is illustrated by the fact that the No side has never been ahead in an Irish Timespoll on any previous EU vote. The last poll in June 2001, before the first referendum on the Nice Treaty was lost, showed 45 per cent in the Yes camp, 28 per cent No and 27 per cent undecided.
The figures in the latest poll show that the No camp has picked up 14 points from the undecided group and five points from the Yes side since the last poll. The outcome is now in the hands of the remaining 28 per cent of undecided voters but, going on the poll trend, they are likely to break disproportionately to the No side.
The only thing in the Yes campaign's favour is that there is no evidence the Government is suffering from a backlash on domestic issues. To make it even more mysterious, the most important reason people cited for voting No was that they don't know what they are being asked to vote for or that they don't understand the treaty.
As voters are not seeking to punish the Government, and don't appear to have any single compelling reason to vote against the treaty, Cowen may have the standing to bring his own party supporters back into line.
In class terms, the No side has made significant gains among farmers and workers. Some 34 per cent of farmers are now against the treaty with 31 per cent for it. Among C2DE voters, 39 per cent are against and 24 per cent for. The threat by the Irish Farmers' Association to oppose Lisbon has had considerable impact as has the opposition of some union leaders to the treaty.
The Yes side is ahead among ABC1 voters with 36 per cent Yes and 31 per cent No, but even in this category the No vote has almost doubled since the last poll while the Yes side has lost some support.
Fianna Fáil voters still back the treaty with 42 per cent intending to vote Yes and 25 per cent No. That represents a gain of 15 points by the No camp among party supporters and a decline in the number voting Yes.
Green Party supporters also back the Government by a healthy 46 per cent to 29 per cent but a majority of supporters of all other parties are in the No camp.
Fine Gael voters are now against the treaty by 40 per cent to 30 per cent, despite their party's support for it.
Among Labour voters, the No campaign is even stronger with a lead of 47 per cent with 30 per cent. This indicates that the worries expressed by some trade union figures and left-wing politicians about the impact on workers' rights is having an impact.
Sinn Féin voters are overwhelming in the No side with 66 per cent of them against the treaty and just 2 per cent for it. This tallies with the party's vocal campaign for a No vote on Thursday.
Women are less likely to be in favour of the treaty than men, with 25 per cent of them in the Yes camp, 32 per cent against and a substantial 36 per cent still undecided. Men are against the treaty by 39 per cent to 34 per cent.
Across the age groups, older people are more positively disposed towards voting Yes but only among the over 50s is there a majority for the treaty. The highest proportion of No voters comes from the 35-49 age group who are against the treaty by 39 per cent to 26 per cent.
In regional terms, the No lead was biggest in Munster where 38 per cent are in the No camp and 22 per cent on the Yes side. The No camp has a narrower lead in Dublin and the two sides are evenly matched in the rest of Leinster and Connacht-Ulster.
Not knowing what the treaty is about was cited as the main reason for voting No in the referendum, with 30 per cent giving it as the reason for their decision. This was followed by a wish to keep Ireland's power and identity, cited by 24 per cent of people, with the preservation of neutrality coming next with 22 per cent. Helping Irish farmers in the WTO talks was well down the list with 11 per cent mentioning it, while safeguarding the low Irish corporate tax list was mentioned by just 5 per cent.
Those voting Yes put keeping Ireland closely involved in the EU as their top reason. This was followed by enabling the EU to work more effectively, with concerns about the country's economic future coming next.
Asked if they were likely to vote in the referendum, 70 per cent of people said they were very likely to vote, 12 per cent said they were fairly likely, 3 per cent were fairly unlikely, 12 per cent were very unlikely and 3 per cent didn't know. The turnout in the second referendum on the Nice Treaty in 2002, which was passed, was 49 per cent. The turnout in the first Nice referendum, which was lost, was 34 per cent.
Asked how well they understood the issues involved in Lisbon there was some improvement since the last poll, but just 8 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about. Some 32 per cent said they understood some of the issues but not all; 33 per cent said they were only vaguely aware of the issues involved; 26 per cent said they did not know what the treaty was about at all.