Analysis: Lord Alderdice of the Independent Monitoring Commission was rather prescient yesterday when he advised against using the term "clean bill of health" in relation to IRA activity.
The IMC report said that the initial signs were "encouraging" that the IRA was observing its commitment in its July 28th statement to end activity.
But it was too early to be definitive about whether the IRA had eschewed violence and criminality. The report in January would provide a better indication as to whether that positive trend was continuing and so too would its April report.
"I've cautioned people against the use of the term, 'clean bill of health'. I'm a doctor and I genuinely think it is ill-advised to give anybody a clean bill of health because they sometimes go straight out the door and collapse on you," counselled Lord Alderdice.
Around the same time that Lord Alderdice and his IMC colleagues were talking to the press in Dublin, Sinéad Commander in Belfast was confirming to The Irish Times that the police were warning that the Provisional IRA was threatening to attack her husband, Jeff.
Jeff Commander, a personal friend of Robert McCartney, was badly assaulted last month ostensibly for supporting the McCartney family. He subsequently went to the PSNI to provide evidence about his alleged republican assailants.
On Monday police visited the Commander family in east Belfast to tell him he was vulnerable to IRA attack. Mr Commander was handed an official form saying the IRA continued "to be unhappy that you have given evidence against Provisional IRA members".
A Sinn Féin spokesman suggested PSNI Special Branch dirty tricks. He said Mr Commander could be under no threat from the IRA, as it had ended its armed campaign in July and pledged to support the peace process.
The future well-being of Mr Commander, his wife and five children will attest to whether the threat is real or not. Mr Commander's ability to provide evidence in court against his alleged attackers will also be the litmus test of whether he is free from danger of republican intimidation and assault.
That is a case to be monitored. But what this incident also indicates is how the path of the Northern Ireland peace process never runs smooth. On a day when the IMC report should have been opening up cautious speculation about the potential for political movement, up pops another potential obstacle to political progress.
It comes in the wake of the debacle surrounding Fr Alex Reid's comments about Nazis, Jews and unionists. Nobody was going to get excited about this IMC report - it's much too early for that - but a very slight raising of hope might have been expected.
Yet most of the IMC report is guardedly positive in relation to the IRA, and is in dramatic contrast to its view of how the loyalist paramilitaries are behaving. Six and possibly seven people died as a result of loyalist violence this year. They were involved in numerous "punishment" shootings and beatings and various levels of criminality.
At least the IRA is demonstrating a certain discipline and willingness to honour its pledges.
The element of this report dealing with IRA activity after the July 28th statement cited one so-called punishment attack. It was on another IRA member. The IMC could not say for sure what the motive was but suggested that it could be down to "unacceptable activities" or support for republican dissidents.
One such attack is one too many, reasonable people will say, but compared to the level of such incidents in recent years it is indeed encouraging that so far the IRA is stepping up to the mark. It bodes well too that the IRA leadership has the authority to ensure that its members do what they are instructed to do. It further implies that IRA members are reasonably happy following such orders.
It is in the nature of this process that there will be complications.