Calm cruise for leaders before storms of NATO TALKS

KING Juan Carlos and Queen Sofia of Spain spent yesterday aboard their modest royal yacht Fortuna sailing the waters around Majorca…

KING Juan Carlos and Queen Sofia of Spain spent yesterday aboard their modest royal yacht Fortuna sailing the waters around Majorca. Their guest of honour on this scenic Sunday cruise around the Balearic Island beauty spots was President Clinton, who, with his wife Hillary and daughter Chelsea, was spending the weekend relaxing before flying to Madrid for the NATO summit tomorrow.

But if the waters around Majorca were calm and sunny, the predictions for what has been described as 4 "historic" summit are considerably more choppy.

Nobody pretends that any NATO summit is unimportant - particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the changes in defence priorities - but more hangs on the Madrid meeting than on its predecessors, and for the first time in many years, such a summit will convene without prior consensus over the outcome.

The heads of government from the 16 member-states have just two days to reach the three main objectives of this meeting. They are to decide which countries will be invited to join the alliance; to advance the reforms of the military structure, with the possible integration of France and Spain; and to consolidate relations with Russia and the Ukraine.

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It is the first point on the agenda - new members for this exclusive club - which promises to raise the largest waves. The US wants to restrict the first enlargement to Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic; France is insisting on the inclusion of Romania, while Italy supports Slovenia's application. "We still have no agreement and we expect a heated debate, " Mr Javier Solana, the NATO Secretary-General said yesterday. "But I am optimistic that an agreement will be reached before the end of this meeting."

And as it is the US which holds the purse strings in the alliance, paying over 33 per cent of the costs, and with Britian supporting the US viewpoint, few believe that Romania or Slovenia stand much chance of receiving their invitation at this week's meeting.

They will probably have to content themselves with a place on the list for the second wave of entry. One major absentee from Madrid is President Boris Yeltsin, who fears that his presence would be construed at home as support for the membership of former Warsaw Pact countries.

But the changes in the military structure - with the proposed integration of France and Spain - is likely to raise more than a few ripples. Spain has already expressed its intention of applying for full integration once an agreement has been reached about control over the waters around the Canary Islands and a decision to grant Spain one of the sub-commands.

The Spanish Prime Minister, Mr Jose Maria Aznar, said yesterday he expected a favourable decision before the end of this year. But the differences between France and the US are more deep-seated, as Washington is unlikely to agree to the French demand for European control over the Mediterranean Command.

Mr Gonzalo Ceballos, vice-general secretary of the Spanish NATO Association, believes the new threat to European stability will come from the southern flank, making the Mediterranean region ever more important. "Now that the East European threat has diminished, we must now turn our attention southwards," he said - referring to North Africa."This is an area of high religious and economic risk. There is a growing immigration problem which could bring an increase in instability and terrorism in the area."

The 16-member delegates and observers from the 28 associate Soviet Union, are already arriving in Madrid, causing major security problems and massive traffic chaos. They will be guided through their tough schedule by the ever-optimistic former foreign minister, Mr Solana. This crumpled former physics professor's ability to negotiate and compromise are famous. He will certainly need all those skills this week if the Madrid summit is to reach a satisfactory conclusion.