News of the agreement between the political parties in Northern Ireland again puts the focus on the possible economic dividends of peace. There can be no doubt that a lasting settlement would create significant opportunities for the North's economy, but these will emerge only if the settlement terms win acceptance and end violence.
Hopes were raised by the 1994 ceasefire, then dashed by the return to violence. So business's first response to the latest developments will be to wait and watch. After the August 1994 ceasefire, there were many heady forecasts for the North's economy. President Clinton even hosted a high-profile trade and investment conference in Washington in May 1995, to underpin the ceasefire through economic progress.
The initial response, therefore, to the second ceasefire last July was cautious. Now the political agreement has moved the process forward again, a development which business leaders have strongly encouraged, and will welcome.
It will be some time before it is clear if there is the basis for a lasting settlement. The benefits of such a deal would be substantial and would come through extra investment and jobs. Inward multinational investment and tourism are the two sectors which could reap the quickest rewards.
Peace could also bring costs. Northern Ireland has benefited from an annual subvention of some £3 billion from Westminster, a significant proportion of total GDP of some £14 billion, and this could decline. At least £900 million is spent on security annually and, according to Dr Graham Gudgin of the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, up to £500 million of this could be cut in the event of a lasting peace.
A security wind-down could cost jobs over the years - estimates have ranged from 10,000 to 20,000 - although Northern business leaders will press the British government to divert some of the spending saved on security to other parts of the economy.
The challenge for the private sector will be to take advantage of the new political environment. Tourism would be the first to benefit. The Northern Ireland Tourist Board has estimated that the sector, which now represents 2 per cent of the North's GDP, could grow to around 6 per cent by the year 2000, creating up to 20,000 jobs.
Attracting inward investment - the responsibility of the Industrial Development Board - would become easier. The IDB has already had some success, attracting about 10 significant projects each year.
Beyond that, permanent peace could open a range of economic opportunities. It would encourage investment and risk-taking and improve the international image of Northern Ireland.
Despite some unfortunate publicity surrounding two of its bigger firms, Powerscreeen and Mackies, there is evidence that the North is spawning a successful group of indigenous firms in electronics and pharmaceuticals.
Overall, if the political leaders can sell the settlement, then the business community will have to take advantage of the new environment.