Corporate leaders in the US do not see any significant growth in the US economy for much of next year, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, said yesterday after meeting with US business leaders in New York.
Mr Ahern also visited Ground Zero yesterday, where he witnessed the removal of the remains of a missing fireman from the ruins of the World Trade Centre. He later said he had "no reservations" about the US bombing campaign continuing through the holy Muslim month of Ramadan.
"Most companies' view is that nobody is budgeting for much if any growth this year, and there will be no growth for much of next year," Mr Ahern said after a breakfast meeting with members of the Taoiseach's advisory council comprising leading Irish-American executives.
However by the end of next year, in the fourth quarter, "things will be looking up" , he said, particularly with a combination of low interest rates and a stimulus package from the US Congress.
On the knock-on effects of the US downturn on Ireland, Mr Ahern said: "If we can hold 3 per cent growth, and keep unemployment to a small increase, and if economic activity starts moving after the first quarter, things will be not too bad.
"The [economy] is unlikely to pick up in the short term," he said however. "The communications technology people say there is so much stuff in liquidation or receivership that is going through the system that there is unlikely to be an upturn in purchasing goods. Tourism is also going to be difficult. There is a lot of evidence of cancellation of conferences and meetings generally."
Bank representatives he met were more optimistic that 2002 would be a good year.
Mr Ahern spent 30 minutes at a viewing platform for VIPs at the site of the World Trade Centre, and was visibly moved by the destruction. The remains of a fireman which had just been found were loaded onto an ambulance during the visit. The Taoiseach was briefed by Mr Joseph Dunne, first deputy police commissioner of New York City, who told him it would be the first anniversary of the September 11th attacks before the ground was totally cleaned.
He later met New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. He told Mr Ahern that he had just attended the funeral of an Irish-American fireman whose wife had four children and had found out since September 11th that she was expecting another.
Mr Ahern expressed embarrassment about the breakdown of the Government Gulfstream jet in Washington which caused him to have to cancel a meeting with UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan on Thursday. "If it had happened a few hours earlier I would have been highly embarrassed," he said, referring to the fact that he would have missed his meeting with US President George W Bush at the White House.