Broad shape of new EU commission gets clearer

While the Taoiseach may still be playing his cards close to his chest on his nomination for Ireland's next EU commissioner, names from other countries are beginning to emerge, clarifying the broad shape of the next commission.

The challenge facing the commission president-designate, Mr Romano Prodi, is far from straightforward, however. Considerations of competence and fitting faces to portfolios are complicated by the need to find both a political and gender balance that will not leave him exposed to Parliament either in the long or short term. He is expected to officially start talking names once the European elections are over in mid-June.

Mr Prodi, who has new power to veto nominations under the Amsterdam Treaty, is understood to be warning heads of government that that right also makes him vulnerable to parliamentary criticism, in a way that his predecessor was not, if candidates are not seen as up to scratch. They must not therefore regard it as a merely formal right.

The need for gender balance is particularly difficult, with Mr Prodi determined at least to match the current five women and making it clear to capitals he is in the market for talented women.

At the moment the very tentative possibles include the former justice minister, Ms Maire Geoghegan Quinn, the Greek Secretary of State for Development, Ms Anna Diamantopoulos, one of several German Green regional ministers, and the outgoing Danish Environment Commissioner, Ms Ritt Bjeregaard, whose reappointment is the subject of a row in her Social Democratic Party. The Swedes may also appoint a woman to replace the unspectacular Justice Commissioner, Ms Anita Gradin.

Several commissioners are expected to return: from Transport, Mr Neil Kinnock, hoping for a senior portfolio, preferably enlargement; the well-regarded Italian Internal Market Commissioner, Mr Mario Monti, also expecting a higher-profile job; and the Finnish Budget Commissioner, Mr Erkki Liikanen, who may face parliamentary criticism over his handling of personnel.

And the Austrian Farm Commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, a Conservative, is expected to get the nod, although his fate depends on his party's showing in national elections.

Britain will also send the former governor of Hong Kong, Mr Chris Patten, who is currently working on the reform of the RUC, as its second, and junior, nominee. Belgium and Luxembourg are expected to send Socialists, the former finance minister, Mr Philipe Maystadt, and Mr Ben Fayot MEP, respectively. Portugal a Socialist, too, the former defence minister, Mr Antonio Vitorino.

The Netherlands nomination has been complicated by the fall of the government although the euro-sceptic leader of the Liberals, Mr Fritz Bolkestein, has been mentioned.

Germany now hopes to get the new Council of Ministers job for which the former tanaiste, Mr Dick Spring, had been mentioned, as head of the EU's foreign and security policy, for its European Affairs Minister, Mr Gunther Verheugen. If that happens, the Germans' second commissioner is likely to be a Christian Democrat.

In Spain, the names of the conservative Minister for Agriculture, Mr Loyola de Palacio, and the Socialist EU representative in Bosnia, Mr Carlos Westerndorp, are both mentioned for their two positions. In France, the former Gaullist European affairs minister, Mr Michel Barnier, is regarded as likely, with the vice-president of Credit Lyonnais, Mr Pascal Lamy, the former chef de cabinet of the commission president, Mr Jacques Delors.

But, then, Mr Prodi still has to have his say. Few will yet be packing their bags.