Blair `solo run' to win accord likely next week

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, is expected to fly to Belfast early next week for another round of talks with party…

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, is expected to fly to Belfast early next week for another round of talks with party leaders as the two governments intensify the push to meet the June 30th deadline for the devolution of powers to the Assembly.

No final decisions on the Prime Minister's approach or itinerary are expected to be made until the outcome of the North's European election becomes clear on Monday afternoon. But the speculation in Whitehall last night was that Mr Blair could be in Belfast as early as Tuesday.

It is understood the emerging plan is for a "solo run" by Mr Blair, and that the Taoiseach will not join him at this stage. While signalling that "the push is on", British sources last night declined to comment on renewed speculation that Mr Blair and the Secretary of State, Dr Mo Mowlam, want to trigger the d'Hondt procedure for the designation of ministers in the executive on Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

However, amid warnings from usually reliable Irish sources that hard decisions might not be taken until the final days of this month, Mr Blair's and Dr Mowlam's enthusiasm for the early triggering of d'Hondt was checked last night by a statement from the officers of the Ulster Unionist Party suggesting that their agreement will not be easily secured.

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After a three-hour meeting at Glengall Street in Belfast, the UUP officers said: "It would be naive to accept as realistic Mo Mowlam's unqualified declaration of intent to trigger d'Hondt next week. The position which was identified in the Mitchell Report, endorsed by all parties including Sinn Fein when they entered negotiations, supported by the Prime Minister and consistently articulated by Ulster Unionists is that democracy cannot be underpinned by illegal arms or terrorist armies."

The statement concluded: "The position of the Ulster Unionists has never deviated on this issue, and the party reaffirms its manifesto pledge that it will not sit in an executive with Sinn Fein/IRA until they have begun a credible, verifiable and ongoing process of decommissioning leading to complete disarmament by May 2000."

One interpretation of this statement suggested that reference to Dr Mowlam's "unqualified" declaration of intent left Mr Trimble possible room for manoeuvre, if he could secure agreement on Standing Orders (as envisaged at the time of the Hillsborough declaration at Easter) which would see the nomination or designation of ministers fall if some actual "product" had not been delivered by a specified date.

However, apart from an obvious rebuke to Dr Mowlam, the UUP statement does not seem to have been drafted with the intention of signalling any imminent departure from the party's declared position.

And while the two governments are hoping that a favourable result for Mr Jim Nicholson in Monday's count might ease the pressure on Mr Trimble, British sources accept that the situation is further complicated by the next scheduled business of the Assembly, namely a DUP-sponsored motion to exclude Sinn Fein from the executive.

That motion has been signed by 29 Assembly members, just one short of the required number to force a debate, which would take precedence over a motion to trigger d'Hondt. The Irish Times understands a number of UUP Assembly members will support the DUP motion if any attempt is made to trigger d'Hondt in advance of an agreement on the issue of decommissioning.