There is an unusually high number of strong contenders for best actress this year, but only two certainties, Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in Love) and Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth). Helen Hunt was the only American to make the shortlist last year, but she went on to win. And Paltrow may be the only American nominee this year if Emily Watson (Hilary & Jackie), Jane Horrocks (Little Voice) and 69-year-old Brazilian Fernanda Montenegro (Central Station) all make the grade.
But Meryl Streep is heading for her 11th nomination, which would place her with Jack Nicholson in equal second place to Katharine Hepburn, who holds the all-time record of 12 nominations. And Streep's prospects look better for playing the ailing central character of One True Thing than for the older sister in Dancing at Lughnasa. The Oscar voters regularly look kindly on actors playing disabled or dying characters, which may also ensure another nomination for Susan Sarandon, as a woman who, like Streep in One True Thing, has an unfaithful husband and is diagnosed with terminal cancer in Stepmom.
The long-shots in this category are Holly Hunter (Living Out Loud), Alfre Woodard (Down in the Delta), Ally Sheedy (High Art), Christina Ricci (The Opposite of Sex), Oprah Winfrey (Beloved) and the dark horse, Cameron Diaz, the surprise winner of best actress from the New York Critics' Circle for There's Something About Mary.
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Gwyneth Paltrow, Emily Watson, Meryl Streep, Cameron Diaz