Any portal in a storm

The one thing most people in the Internet business agree on is that there are too many companies treading on each other's toes…

The one thing most people in the Internet business agree on is that there are too many companies treading on each other's toes. In particular, the Internet portals - sites which provide a range of services including search, email, chat and news - are finding the marketing battle increasingly tough.

Most analysts believe there is room for only a handful of big portal sites in the market and the battle to be in the top rank is becoming increasingly fierce. Excite, which has always lived in the shadow of its much bigger neighbour, Yahoo!, earlier this year admitted it needed help and agreed to a take-over by @Home, the Internet service provider.

The link-up provides a relatively new approach. Until now most of the interest in portals has come from traditional media businesses buying a foothold in the new medium. Last year saw two portals link up with media companies when Disney took a stake in Infoseek and NBC took a stake in Snap.

However, Internet valuations have now reached such astronomical proportions that few non-Internet companies can afford to buy into the sector. As a result, Chip Vetter, managing director at BancBoston Robertson Stephens, the investment bank, believes the most likely deals now are within the sector, whether it be Internet service providers linking with portal companies, or Internet retailers and portals joining forces to share marketing expenses.

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While competitive pressures are growing, there is little agreement on who the losers will be. The orthodox view has it that the leaders on the Internet - such as Yahoo!, America Online, Microsoft, Amazon.com and E*Trade - will continue to grow and increase their market share. This will allow portals to capture a larger share of the growing spend on Internet advertising.

However, a report from Forrester, the industry research group, disagrees: it compares the recent record-breaking US$90m advertising deal between FirstUSA, the credit-card company, and Microsoft's MSN Internet service with the price of advertising on smaller, more focused sites and concludes that the latter offer better value.

The economics of the Internet are still evolving. The top 10 portals are seen by almost all Internet users but account for only around 15 per cent of total page views. The big sums paid today for stakes in portals assumes they will continue to increase their audiences and will be able to hold their attention for longer. That is by no means proven.