A leader unlikely to render party freshly relevant

After a campaign lasting longer than the general election, the Conservatives have anointed Mr Iain Duncan Smith successor to …

After a campaign lasting longer than the general election, the Conservatives have anointed Mr Iain Duncan Smith successor to Mr William Hague.

Inevitably the aftermath of the atrocities in Washington, New York and Pennsylvania all but eclipsed his victory over Mr Kenneth Clarke on Thursday evening. Party managers had bowed to the inevitability of that - hence Mr Hague's postponement of the count and the reduction of the formalities at the declaration.

As the Daily Telegraph observed, Mr Duncan Smith - former soldier, firm friend of America, and, incidentally, a Tory favourite of Washington's conservative elite - would have less difficulty than most politicians accepting this relegation in terms of real news values.

The crisis presented to world democracy by what the Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, has termed the "new evil" of mass terrorism properly dominated Mr Duncan Smith's acceptance speech, as it occasioned his first appearance as Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons yesterday.

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This was no occasion for party politics. Consequently the new leader was spared immediate comparison with the effective parliamentary style of his predecessor, or predictions about the likely balance of future tussles with Mr Blair across the despatch box.

That said, the occasion can only have been daunting. Mr Blair is noted for his emotional literacy, and has been praised for the strength, speed and clarity of his response to the unprecedented events in the US. Within hours of assuming office it thus fell to Mr Duncan Smith to match Mr Blair in capturing the national mood and help prepare the ship of state for the troubled waters that lie ahead.

He did so, conveying an immediate image of steely statesmanship and true bipartisanship. Indeed, one fancied an intake of many Labour breaths as Mr Duncan Smith cautioned Mr Blair against those who would urge "caution" in contrast to the Conservative Party's "unstinting" backing for the Prime Minister in support of Britain's friend and ally, the United States of America.

Once party politics are resumed it is predicted Labour will seek to characterise Mr Duncan Smith as a prisoner of the "loony" right. Many on the traditional Labour left are not so sanguine. Their fear is that Mr Blair's brand of Clintonesque "triangulation" politics will see him move to fill ground vacated by the Conservative leadership in its further flight to the right. There is already in prospect an intriguing battle between Mr Duncan Smith, who promises bold new thinking on public/private provision and service, and a Prime Minister under trades union fire over plans for increased private sector involvement in running Britain's schools and hospitals.

We are in danger though of getting ahead of the game. The election of a new leader does not make the Tories instantly or freshly relevant. Indeed, to the immediate question "What difference will Mr Duncan Smith's leadership make?", the brutal riposte suggests itself - perhaps little or none.

If that seems harsh, ponder the fate of Mr Hague. For all the analysis of his various stratagems, from libertarian touchy-feeliness to the final countdown to "save the pound" - the received wisdom now is that he never recovered from that baseball cap at the Notting Hill carnival, never overcame the "geek factor" which attached itself in the earliest months of his leadership in 1997. When the "difference" was counted on the morning of June 8th, the results spoke for themselves: one extra Tory MP, and a further six million Tory voters lost.

Mr Duncan Smith promises to reconnect by leading an effective opposition obsessed by the issues which concern ordinary voters. Tory members have declined the probable nightmare of leadership by a man, Mr Clarke, who doesn't share their obsession with sovereignty and a Europe of Nation States. And the opposition of one of the main party leaders to membership of the euro may well influence the timing of any referendum, and its outcome.

However, the British public didn't punish Mr Hague because they disagreed with him over Europe. Finding fresh obsessions, new ideas, remains the greater challenge. If he is ever to lead the country, Mr Duncan Smith must know that reconnecting with the electorate must spell disappointment for many on the Tory right presently cheering his victory.